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Current US IR Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301741
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Ian, located near the South Carolina coast. 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...THE CENTER OF IAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH  FLOODING LASHING THE CAROLINAS...
 As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
 the center of Ian was located near 33.2, -79.1
 with movement N at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 977 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 32A

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022  

411 
WTNT34 KNHC 301759
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
 
...THE CENTER OF IAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH 
FLOODING LASHING THE CAROLINAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Neuse River North Carolina
* St. Johns River Florida
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.1 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 15 mph (24 km/h).  Ian is forecast to turn toward 
the north-northwest by tonight and will move inland across 
eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Ian should weaken rapidly after landfall soon and 
transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight.  Ian should 
dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).  A WeatherFlow station at Morris Island 
Lighthouse recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
* Isle of the Palms to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft
* Little River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Savannah River to Isle of the Palms...2-4 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse
Rivers...2-4 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River...1-2 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occuring within the Hurricane
Warning area in South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina soon.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the warning
areas on the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in North
Carolina by this afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
 
* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches.
* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:
3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches
 
Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week.  Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia today.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible today into early Saturday across portions of northwest
North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across
eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast Virginia
tonight through early Saturday morning.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along
the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula today.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 32

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 301453
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
* NEUSE RIVER NORTH CAROLINA
* ST. JOHNS RIVER FLORIDA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO RIVER
* CAPE FEAR RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  79.0W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   0 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE   0SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 180SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  79.0W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  79.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.1N  79.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...200NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N  80.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N  80.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N  79.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 32

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022  

959 
WTNT44 KNHC 301455
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
 
Satellite images show that Ian has re-developed deep convection
near the center, with frontal features away from the core of the
cyclone.  Additionally, a primitive eyewall has formed around about
half of the circulation.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft recently found peak flight-level winds of 80 kt and SFMR
winds of 72 kt.  Radar data is also showing winds of up to 85 kt 
around 10 thousand feet, with hurricane-force winds now in the
northeastern quadrant.  These values support the initial wind speed
of 75 kt.  NOAA buoy 41004 near the center recently reported a
minimum pressure of 981 mb with some wind, which supports the
advisory value.
 
Ian is now moving faster to the north, around 12 kt, and should
continue to accelerate to the north-northwest later today due to
a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States.  The new
forecast is adjusted a bit to the east, but should still lead to a
landfall in South Carolina this afternoon.  Little change in
intensity is expected before Ian makes landfall, due to competing
influences of strong shear versus baroclinic forcing from the trough
over water waters.   Ian should rapidly transition into an
extratropical low tonight after landfall, and dissipate by Saturday
night.
 
It should be emphasized that dangerous winds and life-threatening
storm surge should rapidly increase during the next few hours in
the Storm Surge and Hurricane Warning areas due to Ian moving faster
toward the coast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today along the
coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning areas.
 
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected along the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the Hurricane
Warning area soon.  Hurricane conditions are possible in North
Carolina within the Hurricane Watch area by this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.
 
3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding
is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally
considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North
Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 32.4N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 34.1N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  01/1200Z 36.0N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  02/0000Z 37.5N  80.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 301454
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
DANVILLE VA    34 14  16(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34 20  17(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 45  16(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 37   6(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 94   2(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  6   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34 17   8(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 55   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 38   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 59   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
FLORENCE SC    50 36   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
FLORENCE SC    64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34 36   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LITTLE RIVER   50 46   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
LITTLE RIVER   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 79   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC  50 85   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
GEORGETOWN SC  64 29   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHARLESTON SC  50 87   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
CHARLESTON SC  64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Ian Graphics

Hurricane Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 17:59:25 GMT

Hurricane Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:22:53 GMT

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:25:38 GMT

Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Ian Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:52:05 GMT

Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Ian Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 14:55:15 GMT

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Issued at  1105 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  1118 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Local Statement for Raleigh, NC

Issued at  1126 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Local Statement for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Issued at  1133 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at  208 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at  220 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Local Statement for Columbia, SC

Issued at  221 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301741
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Orlene, located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, 
Mexico.

South-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disturbed weather located about 700 miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity.  Slow development of this system is possible during the 
next several days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Orlene (EP1/EP162022)

...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 30
 the center of Orlene was located near 16.1, -107.1
 with movement NW at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Orlene Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 301436
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022
 
...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SATURDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 107.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the coast of western Mexico and in the Islas
Marias should monitor the progress of Orlene. Watches will likely
be required for portions of these areas later today.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Orlene is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in
forward speed.  Orlene is then forecast to turn toward the
north-northeast by Saturday or Saturday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple 
of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or
Saturday.
 
Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds 
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as 
coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Orlene Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301436
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND IN THE ISLAS
MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 107.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Orlene Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301436
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Orlene has not changed much in organization during the past several 
hours, with satellite imagery showing a small central dense 
overcast with ragged outer convective banding. Interestingly, a 
recent SSMI/S overpass indicates that, despite analyses that the 
shear is 5 kt or less, the convection under the overcast is a bit 
asymmetric and mainly occurring to the southwest and south of the 
center.  Satellite intensity estimates are essentially unchanged 
since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt.

Orlene is forecast to be in a moist, low-shear environment and over 
warm sea surface temperatures for the next 48 h.  These conducive 
conditions, combined with the small inner core, should allow steady 
to rapid strengthening once the core convection becomes more 
symmetric.  Based on this, the intensity forecast shows the system 
reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in about 48 h.  After that time, 
the global models are in excellent agreement that the cyclone should 
encounter strong southwesterly shear that is likely to cause quick 
weakening.  The official forecast calls for a 60-kt intensity just 
before landfall, and this is near the upper edge of the intensity 
guidance.  However, there is still a chance that Orlene could be a 
hurricane at landfall if the shear is lighter than expected or the 
storm moves faster than currently forecast.

The initial motion is still northwestward or 320/4 kt.  Rawinsonde 
data shows a mid- to upper-level ridge over central Mexico to the 
northeast of Orlene, and a combination of rawinsonde data and water 
vapor imagery shows a developing mid- to upper-level trough over 
northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula.  
Orlene should turn northward and north-northeastward between these 
features during the next couple of days, with this general motion 
continuing for the rest of the forecast period.  The new forecast 
track, which is similar to the previous forecast, calls for the 
system to pass west of Cabo Corrientes and near the Islas Marias in 
48-60 h and then make landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico just 
after 96 h.  This forecast is close to the consensus models, but 
slower than the GFS model. It should be noted that some of the 
ensemble guidance is forecasting the possibility that Orlene will 
get so strongly sheared that the northward motion will slow over 
the southern Gulf of California and keep the center offshore 
through 120 h.

Watches will likely be required for portions of the western coast 
of Mexico and the Islas Marias on the next advisory.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 16.1N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Orlene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022                                              

849 
FOPZ11 KNHC 301436
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   X(15)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)  24(29)  46(75)   1(76)   X(76)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  32(38)   1(39)   X(39)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  38(44)   6(50)   X(50)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   3(16)   X(16)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  25(30)   2(32)   X(32)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  17(27)   1(28)   X(28)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 105W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Orlene Graphics

Tropical Storm Orlene 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 14:45:25 GMT

Tropical Storm Orlene 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:29:10 GMT

deformed-offering