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Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from NOAA

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010507
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the 
northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over 
the central subtropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 30
 the center of Philippe was located near 16.1, -57.0
 with movement SW at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 31

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 010244
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 57.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.0 West.  Philippe is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and 
Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Philippe could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 31

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 010243
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  57.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  57.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  56.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N  57.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.1N  58.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N  59.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N  60.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.6N  61.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N  61.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.8N  61.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 28.5N  59.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  57.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 31

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 010245
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
Philippe's convective cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking,
but there are very cold cloud tops of -80 deg C or colder over the
southeastern part of the circulation.  The center of circulation is
estimated to be near the northwestern edge of the main area of deep
convection.  There is little evidence of banding features at this
time.  The current intensity estimate is kept at 45 kt in agreement 
with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB although objective 
satellite estimates are somewhat lower.  A recent scatterometer 
pass showed slightly higher winds over the southeastern quadrant 
but these are believed to be rain-inflated.  Another Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Philippe tomorrow 
morning to check on the intensity of the storm.
 
The motion is somewhat uncertain since the center is not easy to
locate in nighttime satellite imagery.  However it appears that
Philippe is moving more to the right and the initial motion
estimate is now 230/4 kt.  Steering currents are expected to remain 
ill-defined for the next day or two, but a weak mid-level high to 
the northeast of the system should cause Philippe to turn 
northwestward on Sunday.  In about 3 days, a turn to the north is 
expected as the cyclone moves along the western side of the high.  
Late in the forecast period, the system should turn toward the 
north-northeast on the southeast side of a mid-tropospheric trough 
over the western Atlantic.  The latest track guidance for the next 
48 hours or so, in particular the new GFS, has shifted westward 
from the previous cycle.  This has resulted in a westward shift of 
the model consensus and necessitated a westward shift in the NHC 
track as well, which is now closer to the northern Leeward Islands. 
It should be noted that the model guidance continues to show very 
little outward extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the 
western semicircle of Philippe through 48 hours, and this forecast 
still does not necessitate the issuance of tropical storm watches 
for those islands.  However, interests there should continue to 
monitor the progress of Philippe.
 
Based on the global model forecasts, the system is likely to
continue experiencing significant vertical wind shear for the next
day or two.  Therefore only a slow increase in intensity is
forecast during the next couple of days.  Later in the forecast 
period, vertical shear is expected to lessen somewhat which should 
allow the system to strengthen into a hurricane, as suggested by 
the regional hurricane model, HAFS-A.  However, the official 
intensity forecast is now above most of the model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 16.1N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 16.5N  57.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 17.1N  58.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 17.8N  59.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 18.6N  60.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 19.6N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 21.1N  61.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 24.8N  61.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 28.5N  59.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 010244
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT JOHN     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   9(17)   2(19)   X(19)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABA           34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   6(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 
BARBUDA        34  1   1( 2)   6( 8)  13(21)   8(29)   1(30)   X(30)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics

Tropical Storm Philippe 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 02:47:09 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 03:23:04 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT3/AL182023)

...RINA CURRENTLY WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 30
 the center of Rina was located near 23.5, -52.8
 with movement NW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010243
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
...RINA CURRENTLY WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 52.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 52.8 West. Rina is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a northward turn 
on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Rina is 
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate 
early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch

Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 010243
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  52.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  52.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  52.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.7N  54.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.5N  55.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.7N  55.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.1N  54.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N  52.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/PASCH

Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010244
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
Satellite imagery this evening indicates that Rina is maintaining a 
well-defined center of circulation. However, strong northwesterly 
vertical shear continues to impact the storm, resulting in 
short-lived, episodic convection in the southeastern quadrant of the 
circulation. Based on the limited convective activity, as well as 
subjective and objective satellite estimates, the intensity for this 
advisory is lowered to 35 kt. 

Not much has changed with the intensity forecast, with all reliable 
consensus aids suggesting that Rina will continue to gradually 
weaken. The large-scale environment appears unfavorable for further 
intensification due to low mid-level humidity and continued 
moderate northwesterly wind shear, as well as the detrimental 
influence of nearby Tropical Storm Philippe. Thus, the NHC forecast 
shows Rina gradually weakening through tomorrow and degenerating 
into a remnant low on Sunday.
 
Rina is continuing to track northwestward at approximately 12 kt. 
The storm is expected to continue on this trajectory tonight, with a 
turn to the north expected tomorrow. Early next week, Rina or its 
remnants will accelerate northeastward between a mid-level ridge to 
its east and an upper-level trough to its west. The new track 
forecast is very similar to both the previous NHC forecast and the 
consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 23.5N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 24.7N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 26.5N  55.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1200Z 28.7N  55.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 31.1N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch

Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 010243
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182023               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HOGSETT

Tropical Storm Rina Graphics

Tropical Storm Rina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 02:45:43 GMT

Tropical Storm Rina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 03:29:09 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010508
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of 
southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
favorable for development of this system during the next several 
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle 
part of next week while it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 01 Oct 2023 05:55:12 GMT
deformed-offering