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Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from NOAA

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is 
expected to move westward over the next couple of days and 
interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low 
pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some 
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over 
the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 30 Sep 2020 16:16:59 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301141
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Marie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles 
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days.  
Thereafter, some slow development is possible through early next 
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)

...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 30
 the center of Marie was located near 14.2, -113.8
 with movement W at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301443
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020
 
...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 113.8W
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.8 West.  Marie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is 
expected to become a hurricane this evening or tonight.  Marie 
could then become a major hurricane by late Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301443
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182020
1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 301443
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020
 
Marie's satellite presentation has been gradually improving.  The
center is embedded beneath a central dense overcast feature, and
the convective band within the western semicircle has become a
little more pronounced and continuous.  In addition, a mid-level eye
has begun to form, as observed in a 1200 UTC SSMIS microwave 
pass.  Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt from 
TAFB and SAB, and the most recent SATCON estimate was 53 kt (at 
around 0900 UTC).  Based on these numbers and the continued 
improvement of Marie's structure, the initial intensity is set at 55 
kt.

The stage appears set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the 
next couple of days.  Water vapor imagery indicates that the 
easterly shear over the cyclone has continued to decrease and 
should be generally low for the next 3 days, and upper-level 
divergence will also be in place during that period to help 
ventilate the storm.  The thermodynamics are also favorable for 
fast strengthening, highlighted by sea surface temperatures of 
28-29 degrees Celsius and plenty of moisture in the surrounding 
environment.  Due to these conditions, the NHC forecast explicitly 
shows rapid intensification during the next couple of days, with a 
peak intensity likely occuring sometime between 48 and 60 hours.  
The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been nudged 
upward slightly from the previous prediction, following the trends 
in the intensity guidance, however it's noteworthy that even this 
forecast is 5-10 kt lower than the solutions provided by the HCCA 
consensus aid and the COAMPS-TC model.  In about 3 days, cooler 
waters and then increasing shear (especially on days 4 and 5) 
should induce a gradual weakening trend.

Marie is moving westward (275/14 kt) to the south of a strong 
mid-tropospheric high centered near the U.S./Mexico border.  This 
ridge is expected to maintain Marie on a westward or 
west-northwestward trajectory for the next 2-3 days.  Even though a 
mid- to upper-level low near 130W longitude has caused a break in 
the ridge, the models have trended toward this feature weakening 
during the next few days.  This has in turn caused many of the 
models to trend westward with Marie's track after day 3, as was 
noted in the previous advisory, but there is also greater spread 
than there was yesterday.  The NHC track forecast remains closest to 
the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, near the middle of the guidance 
envelope, which is bracketed on the right side by the GFS (and its 
ensemble mean) and the left side by the ECMWF (and its ensemble 
mean) by the end of the forecast period.
 
The 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a
tropical storm of Marie's size due to a large fetch of southerly 
swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 14.2N 113.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 301443
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182020               
1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 115W       34 49   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
15N 115W       50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 120W       34  1  50(51)  44(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
15N 120W       50  X   7( 7)  66(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
15N 120W       64  X   2( 2)  47(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  49(53)  17(70)   1(71)   X(71)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  17(35)   X(35)   X(35)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   3(21)   X(21)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   X(16)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  44(59)   6(65)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  25(28)   4(32)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   2(16)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Marie Graphics

Tropical Storm Marie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 14:45:09 GMT

Tropical Storm Marie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 15:25:21 GMT

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