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Tropical Sea Temperatures

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

955 
ABNT20 KNHC 260026
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area
centered about 175 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina,
has become better defined.  However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and the low has not yet
developed into a tropical depression.  Some additional development
is possible tonight as the low moves northward near or over portions
of extreme eastern North Carolina.  After tonight, development
appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system
moves generally north-northeastward near the eastern United States
coast. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern South
Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight.  In addition, dangerous
surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast tonight.  For more information, please see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

The remnants of Kirk are located about 750 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph.
The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little
better organized during the last several hours, however, the
system still appears to lack a closed circulation.  This disturbance
is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day
or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable
upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea.  Interests in
the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this
disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over
the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a
tropical cyclone.  For more information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is currently centered about 950 miles
southwest of the Azores Islands, and it is forecast to meander over
the central Atlantic for the next day or so.  By Thursday or
Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 26 Sep 2018 01:20:18 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

928 
ABPZ20 KNHC 252309
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rosa, located about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

A trough of low pressure located a little over 1300 miles southeast
of Hilo, Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is possible
through the end of the week while it moves westward across the
central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days.
Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time
while it moves westward to west-northwestward well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

...ROSA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 25
 the center of Rosa was located near 15.0, -108.9
 with movement WNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018  

478 
WTPZ35 KNHC 252053
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...ROSA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 108.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 108.9 West. Rosa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts, and Rosa is expected to strengthen rapidly into a
hurricane overnight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Ramos/Roberts

Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018  

367 
WTPZ25 KNHC 252053
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER RAMOS/ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018  

927 
WTPZ45 KNHC 252054
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Rosa has become better organized this afternoon.  An earlier 1601
UTC GMI microwave image showed impressive banding features in the
south semicircle with a banding eye type feature wrapping three
quarters around the center of circulation.  A blend of the Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of
45 kt for this advisory.

Although there is some modest northeasterly shear impinging in the
northeast side of the cyclone, the SHIPS intensity guidance
indicate that this shear will diminish in 12 hours.  Subsequently,
the SHIPS RI index and the DTOPS model indicate a relatively high
probability of rapid intensification in 24 hours.  Accordingly, the
NHC forecast calls for Rosa to become a hurricane in 12 hours based
on these data.  Further strengthening through the 72 hour period is
expected and is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus.
Beyond day 3, gradual weakening is expected due to increasing shear
and slightly cooler waters.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290 at
8 kt, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the
next 3 days south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern
Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific. In response to a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest, Rosa should turn
towards the northwest to north over the weekend.  It is worth noting
that there is considerable along and cross-track spread in the track
guidance beyond day 3.  Therefore, the official track forecast
follows the TVCN consensus, which lies in between the left and right
global model outlier clusters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 15.0N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Ramos/Roberts

Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018  

479 
FOPZ15 KNHC 252053
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 110W       34 81   8(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
15N 110W       50 45  11(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
15N 110W       64 15   7(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

20N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  25(43)  11(54)   1(55)   1(56)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

15N 115W       34  1   2( 3)  19(22)  27(49)  13(62)   2(64)   X(64)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   9(27)   1(28)   X(28)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   1(14)   X(14)

20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   9(18)   4(22)   1(23)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  11(28)   3(31)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  35(51)  12(63)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)   9(33)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)
25N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
25N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

$$
FORECASTER RAMOS/ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics

Tropical Storm Rosa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 20:56:20 GMT

Tropical Storm Rosa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 21:22:02 GMT

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