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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

...SEBASTIEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20
 the center of Sebastien was located near 22.2, -61.5
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 210252
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

...SEBASTIEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 61.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien
was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Sebastien
is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is forecast overnight, with an increase in forecast speed
during the day on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast, and Sebastien could
become a hurricane late Thursday or Friday before weakening this
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 210251
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019
0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  61.5W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  61.5W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  61.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.3N  60.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.5N  57.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.0N  53.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.0N  38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N  61.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 210253
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019

Deep convection has intensified near and to the southeast of the
center of Sebastien this evening, and a recent partial ASCAT
pass suggests the center is still on the edge of the thunderstorms.
Satellite intensity estimates have risen slightly, so the initial
wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the high side of the recent values.

The storm continues to move slowly to the north tonight.
Increasing deep-layer flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough should
turn Sebastien northeastward overnight and cause the cyclone to
further accelerate by late Thursday and Friday.  The models aren't
in great agreement on how quickly the storm will move to the
northeast, however, with the model guidance having a stronger storm
generally moving faster to the northeast.  Since Sebastien
isn't expected to get that intense, it makes physical sense to
avoid the fastest solutions.  Thus, the new forecast is slower than
the last one, closer to the model consensus than the GFS-based
guidance.

The environment is forecast to become more conducive for
strengthening during the next 24 hours as significant upper-level
divergence increases near Sebastien.  Combined with low or
moderate shear and warm waters, these conditions should support
further intensification, and the new NHC forecast now shows
Sebastien as a hurricane for a short period of time.  Notably, this
forecast is still on the conservative side of the guidance, with all
of the regional hurricane models showing Sebastien becoming a fairly
potent hurricane in a day or two.  This doesn't seem likely after
examining the model initial structure of the HWRF/HMON models, which
show a much more vertically aligned cyclone than Sebastien appears
to be now, so the NHC forecast is only a bit higher than the last
one. In a couple of days, the storm will be moving over cooler
waters, with increasing shear and baroclinicity. That should
facilitate Sebastien's transition to a non-tropical cyclone by the
end of the work week, but note that the extratropical transition
has been shifted back about a day due to the stronger-than-forecast
cyclone likely staying a little more separate from an incoming cold
front.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 22.2N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 23.3N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 25.5N  57.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 28.0N  53.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 31.0N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z 37.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 210252
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019               
0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics

Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 02:53:09 GMT

Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 03:24:29 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210526
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Wed Nov 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 21 Nov 2019 05:32:45 GMT
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