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Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from NOAA

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232323
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 24 Oct 2021 00:22:25 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232341
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Rick, located less than 200 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, 
Mexico. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Hurricane Rick (EP2/EP172021)

...RICK FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...
 As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 23
 the center of Rick was located near 15.3, -102.1
 with movement NNW at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 978 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Rick Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 232338
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
 
...RICK FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located 
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 102.1 West.  Rick is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h).  A 
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next 
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Rick will 
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  While Rick has strengthened little during the past few 
hours, it is expected to resume strengthening tonight and become a 
major hurricane on Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday.  This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Rick Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021  

723 
WTPZ22 KNHC 232050
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
2100 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.8W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.8W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 101.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 102.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 102.3W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 102.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.3N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 101.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Hurricane Rick Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232054
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Rick Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
 
Rick continued to strengthen through the late morning, with a brief 
appearance of an eye in visible satellite images.  Over the past few 
hours the eye has become less apparent, and the Central Dense 
Overcast (CDO) has become a bit elongated.  An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated the hurricane late this 
afternoon and was able to provide beneficial data regarding Rick's 
structure and intensity.  During the flight, the aircraft measured 
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 80 kt (which reduce to 72 kt at 
the surface), and SFMR surface winds of 81 kt a little earlier in 
the flight.  A blend of these values suggests the initial advisory 
intensity is 75 kt, which agrees well with unanimous 77-kt Dvorak 
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The 
aircraft also confirmed that the core of Rick is compact, with 
tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 50 n mi from the 
center.  However, earlier scatterometer data sampled winds to near 
tropical storm force in the large curved band that wraps around much 
of the hurricane's center at a distance of 100 to 150 n mi. 

Rick has jogged west-northwest over the past couple hours, but the 
12 h motion is about 335/05 kt.  There is no change to the forecast 
track reasoning.  Rick is expected to resume a motion between
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days. 
The track model guidance has come into better agreement, and the 
only notable change to the NHC forecast track was during the first 
12 h to adjust for the recent left-of-track motion. 

The environment of sea-surface temperatures near 30 degrees C and 
very low shear should support a fast pace of strengthening over the 
next day or so.  The only factor that could inhibit the pace of 
intensification is the presence of a dry moat between the CDO and 
outer band, and some of this dry air could get drawn into the core 
of Rick.  However, based on the other favorable factors, the NHC 
intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening through Sunday 
morning.  As the hurricane nears the coast in 36 h, dry air and 
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear may weaken the cyclone. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast still calls for Rick to reach 
major hurricane intensity on Sunday, despite the recent pause in 
strengthening. This forecast remains on the high end of the 
guidance.  
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo.  Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.
 
2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.
 
3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night.  This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 15.1N 101.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.5N 102.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 17.6N 102.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
 48H  25/1800Z 18.9N 102.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 60H  26/0600Z 20.3N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 232052
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75   
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 105W       34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  16(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1  39(40)  46(86)   6(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
L CARDENAS     50  X   8( 8)  41(49)  11(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
L CARDENAS     64  X   2( 2)  22(24)   8(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  2  48(50)  30(80)   4(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X  10(10)  29(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   2( 2)  14(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
15N 100W       34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1   7( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Hurricane Rick Graphics

Hurricane Rick 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Oct 2021 23:42:00 GMT

Hurricane Rick 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Oct 2021 21:22:48 GMT

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