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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190521
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda,
and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located almost 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to
the southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a
tropical wave.  While upper-level winds are not forecast to be
conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during
the next couple of days.  The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
northwestward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 7

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA...
 As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19
 the center of Humberto was located near 34.7, -63.0
 with movement NE at 23 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 952 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 26A

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190548
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 63.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 63.0 West.  Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h).  This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a north-
northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday night
and Friday.  A turn toward the east-northeast is expected Friday
night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Humberto
will continue to move away from Bermuda.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
exiting Humberto a couple of hours ago indicated that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (200 km/h) with
higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to
weaken today, and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda through today, and these could
continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 26

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 190253
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  63.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 150SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 780SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  63.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  65.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.8N  61.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 160SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.5N  59.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N  58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.4N  56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 45.0N  41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 50.0N  25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N  63.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 26

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190255
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
restored.  However, the weather radar on Bermuda is currently down.

The center of Humberto made its closest approach to Bermuda a few
hours ago, with many weather stations on the island reporting
sustained hurricane force winds and gusts near or over 100 kt.
Since that time, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
arrived at the storm and reported little change in strength despite
a decaying appearance in satellite imagery.  The SFMR surface wind
estimates were in the 100-105 kt range to the west of the center,
and the central pressure was near 952 mb.  Based on these data,
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 105 kt.

The decay in the satellite signature is due to Humberto starting to
undergo extratropical transition, a process that the global models
forecast to be complete by 36 h.  Those models forecast that the
cyclone should steadily weaken during and after the transition
until it is absorbed by another low pressure system between 96-120
h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario.  The new
intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast,
with a slightly faster decrease in intensity during the first 48 h.

The initial motion is now 055/20.  Humberto is forecast to turn
north-northeastward as it becomes extratropical, followed by a turn
back toward the east-northeastward as the extratropical low is
steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only
minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1.  Tropical-storm conditions on Bermuda should subside during the
next several hours.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing,
could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 34.0N  63.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 35.8N  61.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 38.5N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 40.7N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0000Z 42.4N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0000Z 45.0N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/0000Z 50.0N  25.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 190254
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   1( 1)  20(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
BERMUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Humberto Graphics

Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 05:51:35 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:24:59 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
 As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19
 the center of Jerry was located near 15.7, -52.5
 with movement WNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

042 
WTNT35 KNHC 190548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 52.5W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 52.5 West.  Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with
little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 190239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  51.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  51.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  51.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N  53.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N  56.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N  59.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N  62.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.4N  67.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N  51.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 190240
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular
CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant.
Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there
is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system
just below the outflow layer.  An upper-level cyclone is located a
few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by
synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV
jet.  However, the global models suggest that this feature should
remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its
shearing influence will be minimal in the short term.  The current
intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB.  Since the environment is likely to be modestly
conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for
the next 24 hours.  Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some
increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of
Jerry's intensity.  Later in the forecast period, the global models
predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is
likely.  The official intensity forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus.

The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13
kt.  There are no important changes to the track forecast from the
previous advisory.  Jerry should move along the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days.  In
3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest,
north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the
ridge near 70-75W longitude.  The official track forecast is close
to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.4N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 16.2N  53.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 18.5N  59.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 19.7N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 22.4N  67.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 25.7N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 29.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 190240
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 05:54:29 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:32:06 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190520
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Hurricane Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific is producing limited and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while the system
moves little. Thereafter, the system is expected to be absorbed by
the circulation of Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO HEADING WEST ONCE AGAIN...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18
 the center of Kiko was located near 15.8, -127.8
 with movement W at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 27

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 190230
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...KIKO HEADING WEST ONCE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 127.8W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward track is
expected through this evening followed by a west-northwestward or
northwestward motion on Thursday and Friday. Kiko is then forecast
to turn westward yet again by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Kiko
is expected to become a hurricane again on Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 27

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 190230
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 127.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 190231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko's appearance has not changed substantially during the past 6
hours. Although the wind shear is very light, at least some dry air
appears be getting into the inner core of the tropical storm,
limiting Kiko's deep convection. The intensity remains 55 kt based
on the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates.

Both dynamical intensity models (HWRF and HMON) show that Kiko will
eventually reform an inner convective core and strengthen, but do
so several days apart. It seems likely, given the light shear and
warm SSTs beneath the tropical storm, that Kiko will restrengthen
at some point. That said, determining the exact timing is probably
beyond our current ability to forecast tropical cyclone intensity.
The NHC intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the
next several days, as shown by HCCA, but I would not be surprised if
Kiko is nearly steady-state for a day or two, and then strengthens
at a faster rate than expected. Confidence in the intensity forecast
is therefore somewhat low.

The initial motion is now 265/5 kt. Little change was made to the
NHC track forecast. Oscillations in the strength of a mid-level
ridge to the north Kiko should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward in a day or so, and then back toward the west another
day after that. After Kiko reaches the crest of its curvy path, it
is expected to turn southwestward yet again by the weekend. The
model guidance is in remarkably good agreement for such an unusual
track and the NHC forecast remains near the multi-model consensus,
with a little extra emphasis placed on the ECMWF which has thus far
handled the forecast of Kiko quite well.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.8N 127.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 190231
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 130W       34  1  13(14)  15(29)   4(33)   8(41)   3(44)   1(45)
15N 130W       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)  11(20)   3(23)   X(23)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)  39(47)  17(64)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  13(30)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   7(21)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics

Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 18
 the center of Mario was located near 15.4, -112.2
 with movement NW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 190252
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 112.2W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 112.2 West.  Mario is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward
the north and north-northeast at a slower forward speed is expected
Thursday through Friday night, followed by a turn back to the
northwest this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Mario is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 190252
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 112.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 190253
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Mario's convection had mostly collapsed around the time of the
previous advisory.  However, a 1911 UTC GPM microwave pass
indicated that the storm still had a tight circulation with a
well-defined center, and a new burst of convection began around
2300 UTC.  There is a wide range of intensity estimates with 45 kt
from TAFB at the low end and 65 kt from the UW-CIMSS at the high
end.  Given this large spread, the initial intensity is held at 55
kt in the middle of the range.

Mario's future still depends on Lorena.  At the moment, the storm
is moving northwestward, or 320/9 kt.  The track models continue to
show varying degrees of interaction between Mario and Lorena.  On
the one hand, the GFS and HWRF models show the smaller Mario
becoming enveloped into Lorena's larger circulation, making a
backwards-S track as it moves generally northward.  On the other
hand, since the ECMWF dissipates Lorena inland over Mexico, it
allows Mario to move northward or northwestward unabated with not
much wiggle in its track.  Visible satellite images showed quite a
bit of southwesterly flow feeding from near Mario toward Lorena,
which leads me to believe that there will at least be some
interaction between the two cyclones.  Given that, the NHC track
forecast has been shifted eastward a bit, but not as far to the
east as some of the consensus aids or the HCCA model.

Intensity-wise, it appears that Mario will get into a more
favorable upper-level environment during the next 24-36 hours,
which should foster some strengthening.  Mario is forecast to
become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and this scenario lies
between the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA model.  Weakening
is likely to occur after 48 hours due to an increase in easterly
shear, lower oceanic heat content, and possible interaction with
Lorena.  Because of this possible interaction, confidence in both
the NHC track and intensity forecasts is lower than normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.4N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

780 
FOPZ14 KNHC 190252
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)  11(23)   1(24)   X(24)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   3( 3)  27(30)  23(53)  11(64)   X(64)   X(64)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   9(15)  11(26)   4(30)   1(31)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
15N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)  20(26)  10(36)   2(38)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Mario Graphics

Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:54:29 GMT

Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:51:50 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...
 As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19
 the center of Lorena was located near 19.3, -104.9
 with movement NW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 990 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190540
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 104.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Lorena.  Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
With the help of Mexican Navy automatic weather stations, at 100 AM
CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near
latitude 19.3 North, longitude 104.9 West.  Lorena is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is
expected to decrease a bit on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern
coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Thursday.
Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the
west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach
southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days. However, if the center deviates a little to the right and
interacts with the high terrain, weakening could then occur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).  A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located
near Manzanillo reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) when the
center of Lorena moved nearby.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward
along the coast on Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are expected to
occur on Thursday within the hurricane warning area.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190242
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  80SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 104.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190244
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Earlier microwave imagery showed that Lorena's structure has
continued to improve, with a well-defined low-level ring noted in
the 37-GHz channel.  The convective signature in infrared satellite
imagery is somewhat ragged, although it appears that a warm spot
may be developing near the estimated center.  Objective SATCON and
ADT intensity estimates are 66 kt and 75 kt, respectively, which is
higher than the 55-kt subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB.
However, given the improved microwave pattern, the initial
intensity hedges toward the objective numbers, making Lorena a
65-kt hurricane.

Both the track and intensity forecast hinge on whether Lorena
survives its fly-by of the coast of Mexico.  If the center stays
just offshore, which several of the models show, then a
strengthening ridge over northern Mexico should steer the cyclone
northwestward and west-northwestward away from west-central Mexico
after 24 hours, heading in the general direction of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The ECMWF is the only model
at the moment that shows Lorena's center moving inland, or
interacting with the high terrain enough, to dissipate within the
next 12-24 hours.

All that being said, the NHC track forecast assumes that Lorena
will survive the next 24 hours, and it has been nudged southwestward
beyond 36 hours, close to the multi-model consensus aids and the
HCCA model.  Based on this track, environmental conditions appear
favorable for further strengthening during the next couple of days.
Weakening should commence by day 3 once the system encounters areas
of higher shear and significantly lower oceanic heat content values.

As already insinuated above, due the potential for land interaction
within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty
in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will be dangerously close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico tonight and on Thursday.  A hurricane warning is in effect,
and preparations to protect life in property should have been
completed.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few
days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight
and Thursday.  Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is
in place as watches may be required on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 18.7N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 190243
PWSEP5
                                                                    
HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)  29(37)  30(67)   2(69)   1(70)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  22(28)   1(29)   X(29)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  11(14)  23(37)   1(38)   X(38)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  15(18)   4(22)   X(22)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2  54(56)  19(75)   3(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X  14(14)  17(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   7( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
P VALLARTA     34 20  26(46)   2(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
P VALLARTA     50  2   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
P VALLARTA     64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 93   2(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50 52   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MANZANILLO     34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
MANZANILLO     50 43   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
20N 110W       34  1   2( 3)  15(18)  27(45)  13(58)   X(58)   X(58)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   9(20)   2(22)   X(22)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   6(30)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Lorena Graphics

Hurricane Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 05:40:54 GMT

Hurricane Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:58:26 GMT

deformed-offering