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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221751
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday.  Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure.  Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves northwestward or northward near Florida and
the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for tropical or subtropical development by the
weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the
western Atlantic.  Regardless of development, very heavy rain and
flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during
the next few days.  Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office for more information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 22 Aug 2017 21:57:00 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221734
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kenneth, located about 1500 miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 22
 the center of Kenneth was located near 21.8, -133.6
 with movement NNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 990 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 18

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 222035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 133.6W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 133.6 West.  Kenneth is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
direction of motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Kenneth is likely to become a tropical depression by late
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 133.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 133.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 133.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.1N 134.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.3N 136.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.0N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 133.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 222036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Kenneth's associated deep convection has been diminishing in
coverage and intensity.  The tropical cyclone is now traversing SSTs
below 25 deg C, and continues to weaken.  Using a blend of Dvorak T-
and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate
of 60 kt, bringing the system below hurricane strength.  Continued
weakening at a fairly rapid pace is expected while the system
moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters strong shear.
The official intensity forecast is close to the latest Florida State
University Superensemble prediction, and Kenneth should weaken to a
depression and degenerate to a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner.

The initial motion estimate remains 330/10 kt.  There is no need
to make significant changes to the track forecast from the previous
advisory package.  Kenneth should continue to move through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-level trough
near 140W longitude.  Later in the forecast period, the shallow
vortex should turn leftward following the low-level flow.  The
official track forecast is only slightly to the right of the
consensus, and leans toward the GFS and ECMWF tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 21.8N 133.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 23.1N 134.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 24.9N 135.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 26.3N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 27.5N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 29.0N 137.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 31.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 222036
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 135W       34  2  64(66)   4(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
25N 135W       50  X  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
25N 135W       64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
30N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
30N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics

Tropical Storm Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 20:41:15 GMT

Tropical Storm Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 21:25:24 GMT

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