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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Mar 04 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 04-Mar 06 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 04-Mar 06 2021
Mar 04Mar 05Mar 06
00-03UT325 (G1)
03-06UT424
06-09UT314
09-12UT213
12-15UT213
15-18UT122
18-21UT132
21-00UT243

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 06 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 04-Mar 06 2021
Mar 04Mar 05Mar 06
S1 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 04-Mar 06 2021
Mar 04Mar 05Mar 06
R1-R21%1%1%
R3 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 304
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
SDO/HMI Continuum
SDO/HMI Continuum image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.
Space Weather Overview
Graph showing Real-Time Space Weather Overview
These plots show the current Space Weather Overview.


Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


VHF and HF Band Conditions





Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather, Ken True of Saratoga Weather,
Jerry Wilkins of Southeast Lincoln Weather and Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather

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