RSS FeedSpace Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 Oct 04 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 04-Oct 06 2024 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale G3).
| Oct 04 | Oct 05 | Oct 06 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 2.33 | 5.33 (G1) | 6.33 (G2) |
| 03-06UT | 1.67 | 6.00 (G2) | 6.67 (G3) |
| 06-09UT | 1.67 | 6.33 (G2) | 6.33 (G2) |
| 09-12UT | 1.33 | 6.33 (G2) | 6.33 (G2) |
| 12-15UT | 2.33 | 6.33 (G2) | 5.33 (G1) |
| 15-18UT | 5.00 (G1) | 6.33 (G2) | 5.33 (G1) |
| 18-21UT | 6.00 (G2) | 7.00 (G3) | 4.67 (G1) |
| 21-00UT | 6.67 (G3) | 6.67 (G3) | 4.33 |
Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storms likely over the next three days due to influences from the halo CMEs that left the Sun late on 01 Oct and midday on 03 Oct.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Oct 04 | Oct 05 | Oct 06 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on 04-06 Oct due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the disk.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 03 2024 1230 UTC.
| Oct 04 | Oct 05 | Oct 06 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| R3 or greater | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with an increased chance for another X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare on 04-06 Oct. ARs 3842, 3844, and 3848 are the main areas of interest due to their size and magnetic complexity.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304
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SOHO EIT 284
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SDO/HMI Continuum
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). |
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
Space Weather Overview These plots show the current Space Weather Overview. |
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map
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Southern Hemi Auroral Map
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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
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Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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