Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210534
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane
Teddy, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of
Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory
on the remnants of Wilfred, located over the central tropical
Atlantic.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is producing a small area of showers
and thunderstorms, not far to the southeast of its center of
circulation. The system is meandering over marginally warm waters
and is expected to begin moving eastward later today. Further
development is possible and the system could become a tropical or
subtropical cyclone today or tomorrow. For more information about
marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)

...BETA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING...
 As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 21
 the center of Beta was located near 27.7, -95.1
 with movement W at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 210840
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020
 
...BETA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is
a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was 
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 95.1 West. Beta is 
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion 
is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in 
forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is 
expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Beta 
will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will 
likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to 
the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the
Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 42019, just northwest of the center of 
Beta, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a 
gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5
ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine
Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this
morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
later today.
 
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river
flooding.
 
TORNADOES:  A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the
middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 210840
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE
REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN
ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  95.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE   0SE  40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  95.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  94.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.0N  96.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.4N  96.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.7N  96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.9N  95.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.4N  94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.2N  93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 32.8N  90.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N  95.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 210842
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020
 
Beta is struggling this morning.  Satellite images show that
much of the deep convection associated with the storm has
dissipated, and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the winds have decreased.  Based on a combination of
flight-level and SFMR data from the aircraft, the initial intensity
is lowered to 45 kt.  This estimate is also in agreement with an
ASCAT pass from a few hours ago that showed peak winds close to 40
kt.  It is also worth noting that the tropical-storm-force winds
are largely confined to the northern half of the circulation, and
these winds should spread across the Texas coast later this morning.
 
Beta has been moving due westward during the past several hours,
with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/5 kt. In the
short term, Beta is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion
at a forward speed of about 5 kt, and that motion should take the
tropical storm to the Texas coast by tonight. The models differ on
how far inland Beta gets over Texas, but the majority of the
guidance shows the cyclone stalling just inland on Tuesday in weak
steering currents.  The combination of an approaching shortwave
trough and an amplifying ridge over Florida should cause Beta to
turn northeastward along or near the Texas coast late Tuesday  
and Wednesday, and then farther inland over Louisiana on Thursday.  
The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
remains near the various consensus aids.
 
The tropical storm is certainty feeling the effects of dry and
stable air that has wrapped into the circulation.  The combination
of the dry air mass and 15-20 kt of southwesterly wind shear should
limit strengthening through landfall tonight.  Steady weakening
is forecast after that time due to the storm interacting with land
and stronger southwesterly shear.  The models are in quite good
agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high
end of the guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of
the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible.
 
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
 
3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas
coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 27.7N  95.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 28.0N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 28.4N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/1800Z 28.7N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  23/0600Z 28.9N  95.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  23/1800Z 29.4N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  24/0600Z 30.2N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/0600Z 32.8N  90.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020


000
FONT12 KNHC 210840
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020               
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   3(10)   8(18)   1(19)   X(19)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
CAMERON LA     34  7   2( 9)   1(10)   5(15)   9(24)   1(25)   X(25)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
JASPER TX      34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   4(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 17   8(25)   4(29)   4(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  1   8( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  1   8( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FREEPORT TX    50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  6   1( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 17   2(19)   2(21)   5(26)   4(30)   1(31)   X(31)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MATAGORDA TX   50  6   6(12)   1(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
MATAGORDA TX   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 81   6(87)   2(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
PORT O CONNOR  50  8   7(15)   3(18)   X(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34 43  11(54)   4(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
ROCKPORT TX    50  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 16  11(27)   5(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 14   6(20)   5(25)   3(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
MCALLEN TX     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HARLINGEN TX   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Beta Graphics


Tropical Storm Beta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 08:41:42 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 09:33:18 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Tropical Storm Beta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 09:28:14 GMT

Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Tropical Storm Beta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 08:44:42 GMT

Local Statement for Austin / San Antonio, TX

Issued at  416 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at  416 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Local Statement for Corpus Christi, TX

Issued at  418 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at  428 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Summary for Remnants of Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)

...WILFRED DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20
 the center of Wilfred was located near 15.9, -47.4
 with movement W at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Remnants of Wilfred Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 210232
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Wilfred Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020
 
...WILFRED DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 47.4W
ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Wilfred were located near
latitude 15.9 North, longitude 47.4 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion 
should continue during the next day or two.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Winds should continue to decrease over the next couple of 
days. 
  
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Wilfred. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Remnants of Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 210232
TCMAT3
 
REMNANTS OF WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL232020
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  47.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  47.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  46.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  47.4W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON WILFRED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Remnants of Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 210233
TCDAT3
 
Remnants Of Wilfred Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

Northwesterly vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on 
Wilfred. Recent infrared satellite imagery along with scatterometer 
data indicate that Wilfred's low-level circulation has become an 
open trough of low pressure. Therefore, Wilfred is no longer a 
tropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this 
system.  The remaining deep convection has a linear shape and 
appears to be the result of the system interacting with an 
upper-level trough to its northwest.  The scatterometer data 
revealed peak winds of close to 30 kt to the north of the trough 
axis, and that is the basis for the initial intensity.
 
The system is moving generally westward at about 15 kt. The trough 
should continue to move westward at a slightly slower forward
speed until it weakens and dissipates within a few days.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on Wilfred.  Additional information
on the remnants of this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 15.9N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Remnants of Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020


000
FONT13 KNHC 210232
PWSAT3
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL232020               
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF WILFRED WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9    
NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS
...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                                                
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Remnants of Wilfred Graphics


Remnants of Wilfred 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:34:09 GMT

Remnants of Wilfred 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 03:40:34 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 21
 the center of Teddy was located near 30.3, -63.2
 with movement N at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 963 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 36

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 210841
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020
 
...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 63.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 63.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). Although some fluctuations in
heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally
northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of
Bermuda today and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early
Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day 
or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, but the
cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane
Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears
Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning.
 
Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up 
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds 
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
into Monday night.  Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova
Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to 
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with 
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic 
Canada.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 36

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 210841
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO MAIN-A-DIEU NOVA SCOTIA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  63.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 330SE 390SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  63.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N  63.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.6N  62.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.7N  62.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW.
34 KT...320NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.7N  63.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.6N  63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...245NE 300SE 250SW 250NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.2N  61.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 200SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 50.0N  57.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N  63.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 36

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 210842
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020
 
Where Teddy once had a ragged eye has now become a dry slot, an 
indication that its eyewall is becoming less defined. Some 
southwesterly shear and the fact that Teddy is beginning to move 
over the cold wake of former Hurricane Paulette are probably 
contributing to the degradation of Teddy's structure. Based on this 
trend, the intensity estimate is lowered slightly to 85 kt. An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
Teddy later this morning and will give a better assessment of the 
hurricane's winds. For now, little change was made to the NHC track 
or intensity forecasts.

Teddy is beginning to interact with a large deep layer trough and 
frontal system that will play a big role in its evolution during 
the next couple of days. For the remainder of today, Teddy should 
remain fairly distinct from the front, moving east and northeast of 
Bermuda. As it begins to merge with that system on Tuesday, a 
slight deflection toward the north-northwest is likely, and it is 
possible Teddy could quickly become post-tropical if it merges with 
the front at that time. The most recent ECMWF and GFS runs 
suggest that Teddy will maintain a warm core a little longer than 
than that as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Regardless of its exact 
classification, once Teddy moves north of the Gulf Stream and over 
much cooler waters, it is forecast to weaken below hurricane 
strength and become extratropical. Even with a decrease in its 
highest winds, Teddy will likely be producing a large area of 
tropical-storm-force winds when it approaches Atlantic Canada in a 
couple of days. After moving over Atlantic Canada, Teddy is expected 
to accelerate northeastward and ahead of, and then merge with, 
another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest.

Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next 
couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the 
aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along 
portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see 
products from your local office for more information about 
marine hazards.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today. 
Wind gusts near tropical-storm-force have been reported on 
the island and tropical storm conditions could continue into Monday 
evening.
 
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between
Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.
 
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 30.3N  63.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 32.6N  62.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 36.7N  62.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 39.7N  63.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 42.6N  63.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  23/1800Z 46.2N  61.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  24/0600Z 50.0N  57.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 

Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020


000
FONT15 KNHC 210842
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020               
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  38(39)   X(39)   X(39)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  60(61)   X(61)   X(61)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   X(20)   X(20)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  68(70)   X(70)   X(70)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  35(35)   X(35)   X(35)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  57(71)   X(71)   X(71)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  31(33)   X(33)   X(33)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  60(75)   X(75)   X(75)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   X(37)   X(37)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  34(42)  23(65)   X(65)   X(65)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  46(54)  22(76)   X(76)   X(76)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  23(39)   X(39)   X(39)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)  10(10)  26(36)   4(40)   X(40)   X(40)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  20(27)   X(27)   X(27)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BERMUDA        34 82   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
BERMUDA        50  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

Hurricane Teddy Graphics


Hurricane Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 08:48:22 GMT

Hurricane Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 09:25:30 GMT