SPC MD 801

MD 0801 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MD 0801 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle and adjacent
western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194...

Valid 200712Z - 200915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may continue to develop southward
into and across the eastern Texas Panhandle and adjacent western
Oklahoma through daybreak, although any lingering risk for severe
hail and wind is expected to generally diminish.  A new severe
weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Considerable weakening of the large central Plains
convective system has occurred, with activity now mostly sub-severe.
A possible lingering exception is with continuing stronger new
thunderstorm development associated with warm advection above the
deeper southwestern flank of the expansive conglomerate surface cold
pool.  As the southern high Plains southerly low-level jet gradually
veers to a southwesterly component, this forcing for ascent may
persist and support south/southeastward development of activity
into/across the eastern Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of
western Oklahoma through the 9-11Z time frame.  Continuing severe
weather potential is more unclear due to increasing mid-level
inhibition with southward extent.  But, it seems most probable that
any lingering risk for severe hail and wind will become increasing
isolated and negligible with time.

..Kerr.. 06/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36350104 37239976 34779962 34680083 35370145 36260212
            36350104 

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