FXUS66 KMTR 250402

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
902 PM PDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers will continue overnight with
isolated showers possibly lingering into Sunday. Dry weather is
expected to return on Monday and continue through next week. A
warming trend is forecast for the first half of the week.


.DISCUSSION...As of 9:00 PM PDT Saturday...Evening satellite
imagery shows an upper low centered near the southern Oregon
coast, moving slowly to the east-southeast. To the south of this
low center, bands of showers are rotating onshore. Radar currently
shows a couple of bands of showers moving through the central and
southern SF Bay Area. Latest HRRR shows scattered showers
continuing through the night, mainly across northern and western
portions of our forecast area. A few lightning strikes were
recently detected up near Cape Mendocino, but it`s very unlikely
that thunderstorms will develop much farther south than that
overnight as the coldest air aloft remains well to our north.

Models indicate that widely scattered showers will linger into
Sunday morning, mainly near the coast. But showers are expected to
end in most areas by midday as the upper trough moves off to the
east. However, the 00Z NAM shows a few showers developing across
the far eastern portion of our forecast area on Sunday afternoon
as a weak disturbance drops in from the north. A recent forecast
update included adding slight shower chances to the hills of
eastern Napa County and eastern Santa Clara County tomorrow
afternoon. But for most of our area, Sunday afternoon is expected
to be dry and cool, with brisk northwest winds near the coast in
the afternoon. Gusty northwest winds are expected to continue in
coastal areas through Monday evening.

Temperatures over the next two nights are forecast to be as much
as ten degrees cooler than normal. Low temperatures are expected to
dip into the mid 30s in the coolest inland valleys through Monday

An upper ridge currently centered over the eastern Pacific along
145W is forecast to shift eastward towards the West Coast and
amplify through the middle of next week. This will result in dry
weather through the week, along with a warming trend across our
region from Monday through Thursday. By Wednesday, look for
widespread high temperatures in the 70s, with even a few lower 80s


.AVIATION...As of 04:35 PM PDT Saturday...For 00Z TAFs. Winds
across the region out of the WSW to W with gusts to around 20-23
kt. Winds will remain gusty over the next few hours. Another weak
boundary is expected to move through over the next couple hours
with another round of showers spreading north to south. As the
boundary approaches, expect cigs to become BKN at 4,000 to 6,000
ft and then lower to MVFR. Conditions will rebound to VFR by
around 18z tomorrow has high pressure builds and conditions clear.

Vicinity of KSFO...Winds WSW to W gusting to just over 20 kt. Next
front to move through around 03-04z. May bring some showers to the
terminal along with MVFR cigs. Winds will decrease overnight and
cigs expected to lift late tomorrow morning.

SFO Bridge  Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Light showers remain in the vicinity with
BKN VFR cigs. Winds gusty out of the WSW to W to 20 kt at KSNS.
Winds will begin to decrease over the next few hours. Another weak
boundary will move through late tonight bringing possible showers
to the area along with MVFR cigs.


.MARINE...As of 8:31 PM PDT Saturday...A cold front will pass
through the waters tonight, producing another round of scattered
showers. Winds will turn northwest and increase on Sunday behind
the front. Gusty northwest winds will continue into the early part
of the work week as strong high pressure builds off the northern
California coast. Winds will then gradually subside by midweek,
especially in the nearshore waters, as high pressure weakens.


     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 2 AM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 2 AM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 2 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm



MARINE: Dykema

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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion