Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041130
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf 
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area 
of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or 
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some 
gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward 
or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm 
could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low 
remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend 
across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or 
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over 
portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the 
Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)

...KIRK REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4
 the center of Kirk was located near 22.3, -48.1
 with movement NW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 934 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 040844
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
 
...KIRK REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 48.1W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near 
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the 
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected 
to continue today. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a 
faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible 
today. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue 
through early next week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 040844
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  48.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  934 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  48.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  47.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.6N  49.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N  50.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.7N  50.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 65NE  55SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.3N  49.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 65NE  65SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N  46.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.8N  42.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 180NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 47.0N  14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW  30NW.
34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N  48.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024  
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
 
Kirk remains a large, powerful hurricane with an impressive 
satellite presentation. The hurricane has a clear, circular 20 n mi- 
wide eye that is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. 
The latest subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are 
T6.0/115 kt, while the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates are 
around 125-130 kt. A blend of these values supports holding the 
initial intensity at 125 kt. The wind radii of Kirk were made 
slightly larger based on an earlier ASCAT overpass.

A subtropical high to the northeast of Kirk is steering the 
hurricane northwestward (310/9 kt), but a northward turn is expected 
on Saturday while the hurricane moves between the western extent of 
the subtropical ridge and a shortwave trough approaching from the 
west. Then, Kirk is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the 
mid-latitudes on Sunday through early next week, ahead of a 
deep-layer trough moving across the northern Atlantic. The track 
guidance agrees on this recurvature scenario, and the NHC prediction 
is very similar to the previous one with only slight left-of-track 
adjustments to follow the multi-model consensus trends.

Satellite intensity estimates peaked overnight, and there is 
evidence of some restriction of Kirk's upper-level outflow to the 
west of the hurricane in recent satellite images. The shear is 
expected to increase over Kirk during the next few days, along with 
the potential for intrusions of dry air that could disrupt the 
hurricane's convective organization. So while small short-term 
intensity fluctuations are possible, the overall forecast trend is 
for gradual weakening through Saturday, with more steady weakening 
into early next week. As Kirk moves over cooler waters and into a 
more baroclinic environment, it is expected to lose tropical 
characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone by 
96 h over the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast 
closely follows the latest HCCA aid.

Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its 
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean 
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells 
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents 
across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the 
Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic 
Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For 
more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local 
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 22.3N  48.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 23.6N  49.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 28.7N  50.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 32.3N  49.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 35.8N  46.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 39.8N  42.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 45.0N  29.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z 47.0N  14.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN

Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 040844
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024               
0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125   
KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Hurricane Kirk Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 08:50:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 09:23:10 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4
 the center of Leslie was located near 9.8, -32.5
 with movement W at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 040844
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
 
...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 32.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 32.5 West.  Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the 
west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward 
the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into 
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and 
Leslie is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 040844
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N  32.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N  32.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.7N  32.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.1N  33.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.5N  34.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.0N  36.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.8N  37.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.0N  38.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N  40.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N  43.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N  47.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.8N  32.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 040845
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
 
A 0421 UTC GMI microwave pass showed that Leslie has developed a 
well-defined low-level structure, along with what appears to be an 
attempt at an eyewall feature south of the center.  This asymmetry 
in the convection is the result of continued moderate shear out of 
the north-northeast.  ASCAT-C data from several hours ago showed 
several 44-kt wind barbs northwest of the center.  Given the 
typical undersampling of this instrument, and the storm's improved 
structure despite the shear, the initial intensity is estimated to 
be 50 kt.

The GMI and ASCAT passes helped immensely in locating Leslie's 
center, which is a little farther south than previously estimated.  
Leslie is moving slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, along the southern 
periphery of the subtropical ridge.  With the ridge expected to 
remain centered over the eastern Atlantic, Leslie is forecast to 
gradually turn west-northwestward later today and then toward the 
northwest in about 48 hours, with that motion continuing through 
the middle of next week.  The NHC track forecast is near a blend of 
the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and any differences from the 
previous prediction should be considered negligible.

The deep-layer shear affecting Leslie is likely to abate in about 
12 hours.  However, there are a few environmental features that 
could potentially limit Leslie's rate of intensification.  
Mid-level shear and dry air are shown to be the biggest negative 
factors in the SHIPS diagnostics, and Leslie may end up moving over 
Hurricane Kirk's cold wake.  Additional strengthening is still 
anticipated, however much of the intensity guidance has come down 
on this cycle.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than 
the previous forecast to follow this trend, but it lies near or 
above the highest intensity models for most of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z  9.8N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 10.1N  33.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 10.5N  34.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 11.0N  36.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 11.8N  37.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 13.0N  38.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 14.5N  40.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 17.5N  43.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 20.3N  47.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 040844
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024               
0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 08:46:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 09:29:12 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041130
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce 
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some limited 
development is possible on Friday while the low moves slowly 
northward or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should 
become less conducive and prevent further development by the 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico during the early part of next week. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week 
while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 04 Oct 2024 11:40:35 GMT