Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251723
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 25 Jun 2018 19:00:10 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251749
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Daniel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Development of this system
is not expected before it merges with a low pressure area
approaching from the southeast in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located
about 600 miles south of eastern Mexico has become better organized
during the last 24 hours.   Additional development is forecast, and
a tropical depression is expected to form later this week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward, well south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean Sea should move into
the eastern Pacific tonight or Tuesday.  Gradual development of this
system is expected as it moves westward away from Central America,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Daniel (EP5/EP052018)

...DANIEL STARTING TO WEAKEN...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 25
 the center of Daniel was located near 19.0, -117.8
 with movement NW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Daniel Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 251431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...DANIEL STARTING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 117.8W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 117.8 West.  Daniel is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a westward
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Daniel is
expected to weaken to a depression later today or tonight.  The
cyclone is then forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure
area Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2018  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 251431
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052018
1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 118.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 120.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 117.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 251433
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Convection associated with Daniel is gradually diminishing as the
cyclone moves over cooler water, with the remaining convection just
to the west or southwest of the center.  The initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt based on various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates.  Daniel should continue to weaken
over sea surface temperatures of 23-24C, with the system expected
to drop below tropical storm strength in the next 12 h and to
degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h.

The cyclone is starting its expected left turn with the initial
motion now 315/8.  A combination of a mid- to upper-level low to
the west-southwest and a low- to mid-level ridge to the north
should cause Daniel to turn west-northwestward to westward during
the next 36 h, with the westward motion continuing until the
cyclone dissipates.  The new track forecast is similar to the
previous forecast and is close to the center of the guidance
envelope through 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 19.0N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 19.6N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 20.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z 20.3N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Daniel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2018                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 251432
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052018               
1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34  1  12(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Daniel Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Jun 2018 14:37:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Jun 2018 15:26:35 GMT