Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 312326
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed 
Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine, located over the central Caribbean 
Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine are issued 
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine are issued 
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine (AT4/AL292020)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 31
 the center of Twenty-Nine was located near 15.0, -73.2
 with movement W at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 312049
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 73.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of 
the depression.  Hurricane or tropical storm watches will likely be 
required for portions of these countries later tonight or early 
Sunday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Nine was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 73.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 
km/h), and this westward motion is expected to continue through 
Sunday night.  A slower motion toward the west-southwest and then 
southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, 
the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern 
coast of Nicaragua by Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become 
a tropical storm tonight.  The system is then expected to become a 
hurricane by Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Through Thursday afternoon, the depression is expected to
cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of
Hispaniola.  Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of
rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected.  This rainfall
should lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could cause
landslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 31 2020  

771 
WTNT24 KNHC 312048
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL292020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 31 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THE DEPRESSION.  HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE 
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY 
SUNDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  73.2W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  73.2W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  72.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.1N  75.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.4N  78.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N  80.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N  82.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  50SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.3N  83.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  70SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N  83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE  70SE  70SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 13.5N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.0N  86.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  73.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 312050
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020
 
Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized 
in association with a tropical wave which has been moving westward 
across the central Caribbean Sea.  It was unclear this morning if 
the system had developed a closed low-level circulation, since 
scatterometers have avoided the system over the past 24 hours, but 
recent visible and microwave satellite images suggest that the 
system almost certainly now has a well-defined center.  For that 
reason, the system is being designated as a tropical depression with 
30-kt winds, based on Dvorak classifications of T2.0 from both TAFB 
and SAB.
 
A low- to mid-level ridge axis that extends from the subtropical 
Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the Bahamas is currently steering 
the depression toward the west (270 degrees) at an estimated speed 
of 13 kt.  Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the 
depression's future track for the first 48 hours or so.  The cyclone 
is expected to continue westward for the first 36 hours and then 
slow down and turn west-southwestward by 48 hours as it approaches 
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, in response to a building 
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  After that time, however, there is 
significant divergence in the models.  For example, the ECWMF and 
its ensemble members continue on a faster westward motion across 
Central America, while the GFS and its ensemble members stall the 
system over the western Caribbean Sea through day 5.  Given this 
discrepancy, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on 
days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center slowly across 
northern Nicaragua, more or less in line with the multi-model 
consensus aids.  This forecast is of generally low confidence, 
however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory 
packages depending on model trends.
 
The waters over the Caribbean Sea remain very warm--around 29 
degrees Celsius--and the environment is characterized by low 
vertical shear of 10 kt or less.  Along with plenty of ambient 
moisture, these parameters suggest the system is primed for steady, 
if not significant, strengthening during the next few days.  The NHC 
official forecast generally lies between the SHIPS guidance and the 
HCCA corrected-consensus aid, which lie near the upper bound of the 
intensity guidance, and it brings the system to hurricane strength 
in 48 hours.  The intensity forecast hinges greatly on whether or 
not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, but 
regardless, the system is expected to be a hurricane when it 
approaches the Honduras and Nicaragua coasts in a few days.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early 
next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday 
and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge, 
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua 
and Honduras.  Hurricane Watches could be needed for portions of 
those areas later tonight. 

2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from the system will 
likely lead to flash flooding and river flooding across portions of 
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could result 
in landslides in areas of higher terrain.  Flooding is also possible 
near the southern coast of Hispaniola.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 15.0N  73.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 15.1N  75.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 15.4N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 15.5N  80.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 15.1N  82.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 14.3N  83.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 13.8N  83.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 96H  04/1800Z 13.5N  85.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  05/1800Z 14.0N  86.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 31 2020                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 312049
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL292020               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 31 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-NINE WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   6(22)   4(26)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  31(42)   7(49)   2(51)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   3(18)   1(19)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   2(26)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
BLUEFIELDS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  12(19)   7(26)   2(28)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LIMON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Oct 2020 20:51:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Oct 2020 21:25:22 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312304
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure is forecast to develop south or 
southwest of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of 
days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for 
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form by the middle of next week as the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 31 Oct 2020 23:54:47 GMT