Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200501
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 20 Oct 2018 05:17:47 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192300
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Vicente, located just offshore the Pacific
coast of Guatemala.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are expected to remain favorable for further development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form tonight or tomorrow
while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)

...VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 19
 the center of Vicente was located near 13.7, -92.5
 with movement WNW at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 200235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR, GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), radar data from Guatemala and satellite
imagery indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 92.5 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). An increase
in forward speed and a turn toward the west is expected tonight,
followed by a turn toward the southwest on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente should gradually move away from the
coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Vicente is a small tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Through Wednesday morning, Vicente is expected to
produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches
across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6
inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of
southeastern Mexico.  This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 200235
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  92.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  92.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  92.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N  93.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.3N  94.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N  95.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.3N  97.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N  92.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200236
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Radar imagery from Guatemala has been extremely helpful in tracking
the center of Vicente, especially after sunset.  The low-level
center of the small tropical storm appears to have accelerated
northwestward during the past couple of hours, away from its rapidly
decaying central dense overcast, and is now almost entirely
exposed. Analysis from UW-CIMSS indicates that 10-15 knots of
northwesterly shear is currently affecting Vicente, and this appears
to have been enough to significantly disrupt the organization of the
cyclone, probably due to its small size.  The initial intensity has
been held at 35 kt based on objective and subjective satellite
estimates at 00Z, but given the tiny size of Vicente and its
large swings in organization since early this morning, its unclear
how representative these estimates are of the true maximum winds.

Vicente is now moving west-northwestward, or 300/3 kt, and all of
the guidance indicates that it will turn westward overnight.  After
that time, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause
the cyclone to turn southwestward, especially if Vicente remains
weak and shallow.  A few models even indicate the tropical storm
could dissipate entirely as it interacts with these winds. Assuming
the cyclone makes it past the Gulf of Tehuantepec intact, Vicente
should turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest after about
48 h as it gets steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge over
Mexico and another tropical cyclone that will likely develop off the
coast of Mexico by that time.  The NHC forecast has been shifted a
little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and
FSSE aids, but is generally similar to the previous advisory.

Due in part to the rapid decline in Vicente's organization this
evening, the intensity forecast has been adjusted lower at most
forecast hours for the first 48 h of the forecast, but is still
generally higher than the model consensus. Most of the intensity
guidance still calls for intensification, especially between 36 h
and 72 h, when Vicente should be past the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and
the shear should remain generally low. By the end of the forecast
period, the global models indicate that Vicente will interact with a
much larger tropical cyclone to its west, which should cause Vicente
to weaken and possibly dissipate, though a 120 h point is still
carried in this forecast for continuity purposes.

Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight
and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible
life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 13.7N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 13.7N  93.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 13.3N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 12.5N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 12.3N  97.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 200235
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018               
0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   2(21)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   3(18)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   2(17)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
10N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   6(30)   1(31)
15N 100W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
15N 100W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
P ANGEL        34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
10N 95W        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 95W        34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 02:37:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 03:21:56 GMT