Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261154
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Ian, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands is showing signs of organization this morning.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next couple of days before upper-level winds become less favorable 
toward the end of the week.  The system is expected to meander 
during the next day or two and then move slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...
 As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 26
 the center of Ian was located near 19.1, -82.7
 with movement NW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 261456
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
 
...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Florida has been
extended from Chokoloskee southward to Flamingo.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from 
Seven Mile Bridge eastward to the Channel 5 Bridge in the Middle 
Keys.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Flamingo
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. Additional
watches may be need later today farther north along the west coast
of Florida.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin later today, followed by a northward motion on
Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the
north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is
forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near
or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the
Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday into Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight 
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major 
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on Air Force and NOAA Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft data is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa 
Bay...5-10 ft
*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor... 
4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida 
Bay...2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet 
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of 
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early 
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands today.

WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
by late today. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ida
moves across western Cuba.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
 
Hurricane conditions are possible along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday
evening.
 
RAINFALL:  Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:
 
Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5
inches, especially along the south coastal region.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
 
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.
 
Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.
 
Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15
inches.
 
Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.
 
Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions 
of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeastern U.S. 
Friday and Saturday.
 
Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late week in
central Florida given already saturated conditions. Flash and urban
flooding impacts are also possible with rainfall across the Florida
Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Limited flooding
impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are also possible over
northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida
Peninsula.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swells are expected to begin
affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the
west coast of Florida through Wednesday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 261456
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FROM CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE IN THE MIDDLE 
KEYS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* TAMPA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO
36 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  82.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  82.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  82.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N  83.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N  84.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N  83.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N  83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N  83.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.8N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 32.8N  82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  82.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 261457
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this morning. Deep 
convection has increased within the inner core during the past 
several hours, with an expanding central dense overcast noted in 
recent satellite imagery. The inner core structure continues to take 
shape in radar data, although the eyewall still has a banded 
appearance and remains open on the west side. Dropsonde data from 
the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
minimum pressure has gradually fallen to about 980 mb, and the 
initial intensity is raised slightly to 70 kt for this advisory. 
 
The intensity of Ian has increased by 30 kt during the past 18 h. 
Further rapid intensification (RI) is expected during the next 24-36 
h as Ian crosses the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea within a very low vertical wind shear (VWS) 
environment. The latest SHIPS-RI probabilities continue to highlight 
the high likelihood of this scenario, with a 73 percent chance of a 
35-kt wind speed increase in 24 h and a 79 percent chance of a 45-kt 
increase in 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one, and it shows Ian becoming a major hurricane by the 
time it reaches western Cuba. Ian is forecast to reach its peak 
intensity in 36 h over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Then, 
increasing southwesterly shear by 36-48 h is expected to bring an 
end to the intensification phase. The combination of strong VWS and 
drier mid-level air will induce weakening thereafter, but Ian is 
expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes 
near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
Ian continues to move northwestward at 325/11 kt. A turn toward the 
north-northwest and north is expected during the next day or so as 
the hurricane moves around the western extent of a mid-level ridge. 
Then, an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause Ian 
to turn more north-northeastward through Thursday. This track brings 
the center of Ian close to the west-central coast of Florida during 
the middle of the week. An even greater concern is the slower 
forward motion that is forecast during this period, as the upper 
trough passes north and east of Ian and the steering currents 
weaken. This would likely prolong the storm surge, wind, and 
rainfall impacts along the affected portions of the west coast of 
Florida, although the roughly shore-parallel track still makes it 
difficult to pinpoint exactly what locations will experience the 
most severe impacts. The track guidance has come into better 
agreement during the first 72 h of the forecast period, and only a 
minor eastward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast in line 
with the multi-model consensus aids.

The aircraft data indicate that the 34-kt wind radii in the 
northeastern quadrant were 20-30 n mi larger than previously 
estimated, and this has been reflected in the latest forecast. 
Based on these changes, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for 
the middle Florida Keys and extended southward along the 
southwestern coast of Florida.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash 
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western 
Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday.  
Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves 
across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be 
rushed to completion.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along much of the 
Florida west coast, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the 
Tampa Bay region.  Residents in these areas should listen to advice 
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are possible in the hurricane watch area 
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical 
storm conditions possible by late Tuesday.  Residents in this area 
should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south 
Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday 
and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream 
flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across 
central Florida. 

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.1N  82.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 20.7N  83.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 22.7N  84.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 24.5N  84.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 26.1N  83.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 27.2N  83.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 28.0N  83.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 29.8N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1200Z 32.8N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 261457
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   9(19)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  11(27)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)  12(34)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)  10(25)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)  12(36)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)  19(48)  10(58)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   6(21)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  19(37)  11(48)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)  18(50)   9(59)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   6(22)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)  22(46)   8(54)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   5(18)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  34(43)  17(60)   7(67)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  10(26)   4(30)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  28(36)  14(50)   6(56)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)   3(20)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  38(52)  13(65)   5(70)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   8(32)   3(35)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   1(14)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  33(46)  11(57)   4(61)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   2(23)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  31(49)   8(57)   3(60)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   1(15)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  30(49)   9(58)   2(60)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)  24(44)   8(52)   2(54)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)  17(38)   6(44)   2(46)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  14(23)  14(37)   4(41)   1(42)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   7(14)  12(26)   4(30)   1(31)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)  11(26)   3(29)   1(30)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  2   6( 8)  26(34)  11(45)   7(52)   2(54)   1(55)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  2  18(20)  40(60)   8(68)   4(72)   1(73)   1(74)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)   2(21)   X(21)   1(22)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   5( 5)  33(38)  32(70)  10(80)   2(82)   1(83)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)  10(36)   2(38)   1(39)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   3( 3)  12(15)  37(52)  14(66)   4(70)   2(72)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  14(28)   3(31)   1(32)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   3( 3)  24(27)  48(75)  15(90)   3(93)   1(94)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  35(38)  22(60)   5(65)   1(66)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  21(35)   3(38)   1(39)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)  11(11)  44(55)  28(83)   6(89)   3(92)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  34(51)   9(60)   2(62)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)   5(35)   1(36)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)  39(67)  12(79)   4(83)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  27(33)  13(46)   4(50)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   9(28)   2(30)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  19(23)  17(40)   7(47)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   4(19)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  22(28)  19(47)   6(53)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   4(23)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  28(41)  14(55)   3(58)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  10(21)   3(24)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)  30(53)  11(64)   2(66)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   8(27)   3(30)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   2(17)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  22(29)  13(42)   3(45)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   9(19)   4(23)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   6(20)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   3(16)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   3(15)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)   7(27)   3(30)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  10(17)   5(22)   X(22)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 26  48(74)   1(75)   2(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  2  14(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HAVANA         34  8  63(71)  10(81)   1(82)   1(83)   1(84)   X(84)
HAVANA         50  1  14(15)  11(26)   X(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)
HAVANA         64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34 81  12(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
ISLE OF PINES  50 14  23(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ISLE OF PINES  64  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Hurricane Ian Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 14:58:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 15:24:16 GMT

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 10:23:41 GMT

Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 10:35:10 GMT

Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 14:57:44 GMT

Local Statement for Key West, FL

Issued at  1105 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Local Statement for Miami, FL

Issued at  1108 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at  1122 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL

Issued at  1125 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261144
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the southern 
coast of Mexico in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the end of this week while the system moves 
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 26 Sep 2022 15:26:04 GMT