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Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from NOAA

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121741
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Eleven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean 
about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)

...DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 12
 the center of Eleven was located near 12.4, -44.2
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 121442
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020
 
...DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 44.2W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 44.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the 
west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with 
this motion continuing through the rest of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 121442
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  44.2W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  44.2W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  43.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N  46.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N  48.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N  50.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N  53.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N  55.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N  58.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  44.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 121442
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is a little better 
organized than 24 h ago, with a ragged central convective feature 
and a curved convective band in the northwestern semicircle.  
However, recent scatterometer data show this has not yet resulted 
in strengthening, with 25-30 kt winds occuring to the north of the 
center.  Based on the scatterometer, the initial intensity remains 
30 kt.

The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or
280/13 kt. There is little change to the forecast philosophy or 
the forecast track since the last advisory.  A westward motion is 
expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the 
south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of 
the cyclone.  After that, the global models forecast a slight 
weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn 
west-northwestward, with that motion continuing through the end of 
the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just to the left of 
the various consensus models.

The southeasterly shear that has so far prevented intensification 
should diminish in the next 12 h or so, which should allow the 
cyclone to become a tropical storm.  The system should then remain 
in light to moderate shear through about 48 h, and the intensity 
forecast calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during that time.  
Later in the forecast period, moderate to strong southwesterly 
shear should develop over the cyclone due to an upper-level trough 
over the southwestern Atlantic.  This shear should cause the system 
to weaken, and several of the global models forecast it to 
degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h.  The new intensity 
forecast will not call for that quick of a demise, but will show 
weakening due to the shear after 72 h.  The new forecast, which has 
only minor changes from the previous forecast, is near the upper 
edge of the intensity guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 12.4N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 12.8N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 13.5N  48.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 14.5N  50.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 15.7N  53.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 17.0N  55.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 18.2N  58.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 20.5N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 23.5N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 121442
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020               
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics

Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 14:44:19 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 15:24:56 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121154
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Elida, located about 500 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1300 miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to 
produce a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the 
next couple of days while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low 
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
southwestward for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches 
cooler waters over the weekend.  This system is forecast to move 
west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of 
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over 
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of 
Central America.  Conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend 
or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just 
offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form near or west 
of the border between the National Hurricane Center and Central 
Pacific Hurricane Center areas of responsibility.  Some subsequent 
gradual development of this system is possible later this week while 
the system moves slowly westward in the central Pacific basin.  
Future information on this system will be included in Tropical 
Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

The Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook is issued under WMO 
header ACPN50 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP, and is 
available on the web at www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)

...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 12
 the center of Elida was located near 23.5, -118.7
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 121432
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020
 
...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 118.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 118.7 West.  Elida is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A 
northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward 
speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Elida is 
expected to become a remnant low on Thursday.  The remnant low 
should dissipate by late Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Elida will continue to affect portions
of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and will
begin to subside tonight.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 121432
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 118.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 118.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 121433
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020
 
Elida's remaining deep convection, located northeast of the center 
of circulation, continues to shrink in coverage and wane in 
intensity now that the cyclone is over waters of 23-24 degrees 
Celsius.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers are 55-65 kt from TAFB 
and SAB, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are much lower.  
Elida has weakened to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is 
set at 55 kt as a blend of the estimates.  With even colder waters 
ahead and a steady increase in southwesterly shear, Elida is 
expected to weaken quickly and likely lose its deep convection 
within the next 24 hours, making it a remnant low by this time 
tomorrow.  Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will 
dissipate in 2-3 days.

Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt.  The cyclone has 
reached a break in the subtropical ridge, with a low- to mid-level 
trough extending southwest of California.  This pattern should 
cause Elida to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest 
during the next couple of days, and the track guidance is in good 
agreement on this scenario.  The NHC track prediction is similar to 
the previous forecast during the first 24 hours and then is nudged 
slightly to the right after that time to lean closer to the GFS and 
ECMWF solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 23.5N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 121432
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020               
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 120W       34 16  31(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
25N 120W       50  2   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
25N 120W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Elida Graphics

Tropical Storm Elida 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 14:34:14 GMT

Tropical Storm Elida 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 15:31:59 GMT

deformed-offering