Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210558
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles
north of the northern Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are currently conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday
or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on
those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues
to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Due to
strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is
not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the
next couple of days.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba
through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
by Sunday.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21
 the center of Jerry was located near 21.4, -64.0
 with movement NW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 210854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to recurve
over the western Atlantic during the next few days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL STATEMENT: Jerry is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 inches,
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, Anegada, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 210853
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  64.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  64.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  63.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N  65.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N  66.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N  67.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N  67.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.8N  66.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N  63.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 36.7N  60.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 210855
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this
morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level
eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some
westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and
SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively,
which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum
pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with
a 38-kt surface wind.

Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is
now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward
toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday,
followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer
trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone
northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains
excellent agreement among the track models on this developing
scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed
consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the
next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear
affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda,
the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance
region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with
former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected
increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt,
re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a
consensus of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern
Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there
overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 21.4N  64.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 22.7N  65.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 24.3N  66.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 26.0N  67.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 27.3N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 29.8N  66.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 33.2N  63.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 36.7N  60.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 210854
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  55(73)   3(76)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)   1(38)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:56:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:24:49 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210550
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorena, located over southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula, on Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula,
and on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part
of the basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 21
 the center of Kiko was located near 18.8, -130.3
 with movement N at 2 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 36

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 210859
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 130.3W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 130.3 West. Kiko is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected to begin later today, followed by a west-southwestward
motion through early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 36

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019  

012 
WTPZ23 KNHC 210858
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 130.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 36

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210900
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on recent Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates. All of the intensity guidance
continues to show quick weakening as the cyclone moves over
marginal SSTs and into a drier and slightly more stable
environment. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, except the intensity has been held steady for
the next 36 hours due to forecast very low shear conditions by the
GFS and ECMWF models.

The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Despite this most
recent slow northward jog, the new NHC guidance still shows Kiko
turning westward later today, followed by an unusual wave-like
motion as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in strength during
the 5-day period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus
aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 18.8N 130.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 210859
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  10(23)   1(24)   X(24)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:03:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:31:37 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21
 the center of Mario was located near 18.9, -110.3
 with movement N at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210858
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 110.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Mario.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. Mario is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A slightly faster
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast, and Mario is
expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low
on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 210858
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE  70SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 210859
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Mario has become quite disorganized tonight.  Geostationary
satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level center
is now located well to the east of the main area of deep
convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of
east-northeasterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 50 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak final T
and CI numbers, and this could be generous given its current
appearance.

Although the strong shear currently affecting Mario is expected to
lessen during the next couple of days, the cyclone will be moving
into a drier airmass and over decreasing SSTs.  Therefore, steady
weakening seems likely, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous one.  This
prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN guidance.
Mario is expected to become a remnant low in 2 or 3 days when it
will be over SSTs of about 24 C, and dissipate by day 4 over
very cool waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula.

The tropical storm is moving northward, or 350 degrees, at 4 kt.
The increasingly shallow system is expected to move northwestward
to north-northwestward, following Lorena, with the low-level flow.
The track models are in fair agreement, and only minor changes were
made to the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                              

797 
FOPZ14 KNHC 210858
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34 36   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Mario Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:59:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:38:00 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

...HURRICANE LORENA BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21
 the center of Lorena was located near 24.6, -110.3
 with movement NW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 986 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 210857
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 110.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning on Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to
Los Barriles.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
mainland from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino and a Tropical Storm Watch
from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan
Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.3 West. Lorena is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward
the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days.  On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along
the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California
today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across
the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions
are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora...3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 210857
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO
LOS BARRILES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
MAINLAND FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW  15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 210857
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja
California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the
warm waters of the Gulf of California.  Around the time Lorena
made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported
sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of
986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane.  The satellite
appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land
interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary
images.  The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt
based on the TAFB Dvorak classification.  An ASCAT-C pass confirmed
that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force
winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center.

Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have
not had a good handle on its future track.  The models this cycle
have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland
Mexico tonight or Sunday.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model
solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the
guidance envelope.  If this model trend continues, additional shifts
to the right might be needed.  Based on this change, the Government
of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of
northwestern Mexico.

The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it
remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a
pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction
with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and
dissipation is likely to occur on Monday.  The NHC intensity
forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high
side of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy
rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next
couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico.
Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for
heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and
early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds
over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.  It could also bring hurricane
conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 210857
PWSEP5
                                                                    
HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LA PAZ         50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
LORETO         34 23  31(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
LORETO         50  3   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
LORETO         64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   2( 2)  18(20)   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
HERMOSILLO     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X  13(13)  41(54)   5(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
BAHIA KINO     50  X   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BAHIA KINO     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X  45(45)  17(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
GUAYMAS        50  X  11(11)   8(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
GUAYMAS        64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Lorena Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:59:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:44:35 GMT