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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091715
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaias, located over the north-central Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092026)
...WIND GUSTS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...5 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 5:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 the center of Isaias was located near 29.5, -86.9 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WITHIN THE STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS... ...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SEEKING SAFE SHELTER... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 87.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 87.0 West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to make landfall along the coast of the western Florida Panhandle this evening. The center is then expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Isaias makes landfall this evening. Weakening is expected to begin tonight after landfall, and Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently measured at Fair Point Light 2 near Gulf Breeze, Florida. A wind gust to 56 mph (90 km/h) was reported at the Pensacola Naval Air Station. The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... AL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL...6-9 ft Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft Lower Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Upper Mobile Bay...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Within the Hurricane Warning area, tropical storm conditions are now occurring, and hurricane conditions are expected this evening into early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the tropical storm warning areas. RAINFALL: From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: The risk for tornadoes this afternoon in the Florida Panhandle will continue into this evening and tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 000 WTNT24 KNHC 092051 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 87.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 160NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 87.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 95 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.4N 87.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.6N 86.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 38.1N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTNT44 KNHC 092052 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Deep-layer shear from the southwest has increased to 30-40 kt, and the hurricane's structure is responding accordingly. WSR-88D radar data shows that the structure is becoming increasingly asymmetric, with very intense convection mainly confined to the northern eyewall. Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 has also shown that the circulation is becoming tilted with height. That said, some impressive winds were measured at flight-level--136 kt by the Air Force Reserve at 10,000 feet and 126 kt by NOAA at 8,000 ft. While these winds themselves would normally support a higher intensity, several dropsondes released in the eyewall showed that there is a sharp drop-off of winds at the ocean surface, with layer-averaging suggesting a surface intensity of 90-95 kt. In addition, recent Doppler radar data from Mobile show winds of 100-110 kt at about 10,000 feet in the northern eyewall. Combining all this data together, the maximum surface winds appear to be around 100 kt, although it's very likely that Isaias will be a gustier-than-normal hurricane when it makes landfall. Isaias has turned northward and is accelerating with a current motion of 010/15 kt. The track guidance has honed in on a landfall over the western Florida Panhandle near the Pensacola area sometime this evening. A northward motion is expected to continue through Saturday, bringing Isaias's center through Alabama, followed by a northeastward trajectory across the Tennessee and the central Appalachians on Sunday. The circulation is expected to dissipate by hour 60. The high-resolution hurricane regional models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF), as well as the statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS and LGEM) indicate that Isaias is likely to be at or near major hurricane strength at landfall this evening. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, with some caveats. As mentioned previously, Isaias is likely to be a gusty hurricane, and its fast motion could bring strong hurricane-force gusts well inland. Simulated satellite imagery from global model guidance indicates that Isaias is likely to transition to a post-tropical cyclone over Alabama by Saturday afternoon, although it could still be producing tropical-storm-force gusts, especially in areas of higher terrain. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents under evacuation orders should leave immediately and follow advice from local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. 5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 29.2N 87.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.2N 86.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 33.4N 87.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 11/0600Z 35.6N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 38.1N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 000
FONT14 KNHC 092052
PWSAT4
HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFAM 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
ALBANY GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 18 7(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
DOTHAN AL 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
DOTHAN AL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 3 62(65) 3(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 4 12(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
WHITING FLD FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WHITING FLD FL 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
WHITING FLD FL 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PENSACOLA FL 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
PENSACOLA FL 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GFAM 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFAM 290N 870W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOBILE AL 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GULFPORT MS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFAM 280N 890W 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Update Number
Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTNT64 KNHC 092204 CCA TCUAT4 Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 500 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Corrected for reference point distances ...WIND GUSTS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...5 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... A wind gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently recorded at Orange Beach, Alabama. A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently recorded at NOAA buoy 42012 off the coast of Pensacola, Florida. SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 86.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi
Hurricane Isaias Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2026 21:22:14 GMT
Hurricane Isaias Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Hurricane Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2026 20:53:21 GMT
Local Statement for Atlanta, GA
Issued at 521 PM EDT
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at 532 PM EDT
Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued at 512 PM EDT
Local Statement for Birmingham, AL
Issued at 426 PM CDT
Local Statement for Jackson, MS
Issued at 401 PM CDT
Local Statement for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued at 406 PM CDT
Local Statement for Memphis, TN
Issued at 424 PM CDT
Local Statement for Mobile, AL/Pensacola, FL
Issued at 413 PM CDT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091715
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Simon, located a
couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
South of Guatemala:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of
Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late next week as the system moves
generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Summary for Tropical Storm Rachel (EP3/EP182026)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 the center of Rachel was located near 23.3, -124.0 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory Number 51
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 092043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 124.0W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of Rachel. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 124.0 West. Rachel is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general northeast to north-northeast motion, with a significant increase in forward speed, is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach the northern Baja California Peninsula or Southern California late Saturday or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible the next day or so, with rapid weakening forecast after the storm moves inland over the southwestern United States on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of western Baja California within the Tropical Storm Warning area starting Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in extreme Southern California and eastern Baja California beginning late Saturday night or early Sunday. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend into early next week. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Rachel and associated moisture of the system will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches in portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Rachel Forecast Advisory Number 51
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 092043 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 124.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 124.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.2N 122.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.7N 119.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.9N 117.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.4N 115.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 124.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Rachel Forecast Discussion Number 51
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Rachel is producing limited convection this afternoon, with relatively shallow, warm cloud tops confined to the northern and eastern semicircles. A scatterometer pass at 1753 UTC showed peak satellite-derived winds of 37 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB range between 26 and 41 kt. Using this data, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The system is starting to gradually increase its forward speed and is moving at an estimated 055/5 kt. Rachel should begin to accelerate toward the northeast and then north-northeast tonight and tomorrow, embedded within the flow of a deepening mid- to upper-level trough approaching the western United States. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland over northern Baja California late Saturday or early Sunday before continuing north-northeastward into the southwestern United States on Sunday. Track guidance remains similar to the previous cycle, with the hurricane regional models, the GFS, and the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope, and the GDMI and HCCA on the right. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Note that there will be a sharp gradient in the wind field, with the strongest winds anticipated to remain primarily in the eastern and southern semicircles of the circulation. Rachel continues to struggle to produce anything more than shallow convection, as the system is embedded within a dry and stable air mass over cool sea surface temperatures. However, as the system begins to accelerate northeastward, a favorable trough interaction is expected, along with an increase in mid-level relative humidity. Also, sea surface temperatures just offshore of the western Baja California peninsula are anomalously warm for this time of year. Given these conditions, Rachel is expected to produce intermittent bursts of convection and strengthen, up until landfall, even though vertical wind shear will increase significantly as the system approaches the coast. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical over the southwestern United States. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, although some of the hurricane regional models and the HCCA are slightly higher than the official forecast just offshore at 36 h. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula and extreme Southern California at tropical storm strength Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Baja California, Mexico where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in extreme Southern California and eastern Baja California where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday. 3. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 23.3N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.2N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.7N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 30.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 36.4N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Rachel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 092043
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 27(27) 27(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
ENSENADA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
IS GUADALUPE 34 X 2( 2) 62(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 120W 34 2 53(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
25N 120W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
30N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Rachel Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2026 21:27:54 GMT
Local Statement for San Diego, CA
Issued at 208 PM PDT
Summary for Hurricane Simon (EP5/EP202026)
...SIMON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Oct 09 the center of Simon was located near 16.2, -104.7 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Simon Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 ...SIMON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 104.7W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 104.7 West. Simon is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. Simon is then forecast to move generally northward, with the center passing very near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Simon is forecast to become a major hurricane this evening and strengthen further on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday evening or Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected as soon as Saturday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Sunday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible as soon as Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight or early Saturday. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Hurricane Simon Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092045 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.6N 104.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.6N 105.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 105.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 24.6N 106.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 104.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 An intermittent warm spot in the CDO of Simon has been present since this morning, co-located with a small pinhole-like eye noted in visible imagery. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, though this is very uncertain due to the very small size of Simon and intensity estimates range from around 65 kt (DMINT) to 97 KT (RCM-1 SAR). The SAR data this morning indicated the system has an RMW near 5 n mi, highlighting how small it is. Simon has continued to strengthen today, although at a slightly slower rate since this morning. Further rapid intensification is still anticipated but the exact timing of when the rate might pick up again is highly uncertain. Small hurricanes like Simon are particularly susceptible to large and rapid fluctuations in intensity. In the short term, no changes of note were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which remains at the high end of the guidance envelope. The main challenge with this forecast is how sensitive it is to the exact track Simon takes over the next 2 days and whether or not it moves inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. A track slightly east of the NHC official forecast track will cause Simon to quickly dissipate and minimize the threat of wind impacts farther north in Mexico. However, a track just to the west would likely allow Simon to move much farther north as a hurricane. At this time, the difference between these track scenarios is less than the average error of NHC forecasts. Most of the deterministic global models shifted slightly east this cycle, but ensemble guidance indicates both scenarios are still plausible. The NHC track and intensity forecast therefore is largely unchanged and continues to show Simon tracking farther north than it might realistically make it to emphasize that risk. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by late today. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.2N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.6N 104.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 17.5N 105.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 18.6N 105.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 105.3W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 12/1800Z 22.8N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 24.6N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Hurricane Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 092045
PWSEP5
HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 26(36) X(36) X(36)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 5(30) X(30)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 38(59) X(59) X(59)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) X(25) X(25)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 20(60) X(60) X(60)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 105W 34 25 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 45(47) 26(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 17(17) 22(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
MANZANILLO 34 X 10(10) 53(63) 10(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74)
MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 11(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Hurricane Simon Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2026 21:33:38 GMT
