Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221710
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight.  Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds.  The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula.  This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 22 Jul 2019 18:08:20 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221731
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Five-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system this
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Five-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Five-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052019)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 22
 the center of Five-E was located near 15.9, -116.3
 with movement N at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 221434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 116.3W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 116.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a
gradual turn to the northwest by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 221433
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052019
1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 221435
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A recent satellite microwave pass indicates that the depression has
not gotten any better organized this morning. It appears that
northeasterly shear is keeping much of the convection displaced to
the west of the center of circulation. Both the latest TAFB
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and UW-CIMMS objective intensity
estimate indicate that the system remains a 30-kt depression.

The initial motion of the depression is 355/08 kt. Model guidance is
in good agreement on a continuation of this general motion for the
next 36-48 hours as the depression is steered between a weak
mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its
northeast. After 48 hours, the system should begin to weaken and
turn toward the northwest as it becomes steered by the lower-level
flow. The latest NHC forecast track is very near the previous
official forecast and is near the track guidance consensus.

Although convection has increased this morning, the shear is
preventing the inner core of the depression from becoming better
established. This shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 kt range
for the next 48 hours which should continue to prevent any
significant intensification during that time frame. Since the other
environmental parameters are somewhat favorable for intensification
during the next day or so, the depression will likely become a
minimal tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the
system will move over waters below 26 C and into a stable
atmospheric environment which should induce steady weakening. By 72
hours, the system is expected to become a remnant low, with
dissipation likely by 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is
close to the previous NHC forecast, and is near the more reliable
intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 15.9N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019  

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 221434
PWSEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052019
1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ISLA CLARION   34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

20N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 14:40:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 15:24:15 GMT