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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2020 Dec 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 02-Dec 04 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 02-Dec 04 2020
Dec 02Dec 03Dec 04
00-03UT122
03-06UT111
06-09UT211
09-12UT111
12-15UT211
15-18UT221
18-21UT322
21-00UT312

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 02-Dec 04 2020
Dec 02Dec 03Dec 04
S1 or greater5%5%5%

Rationale: A slight chance exists 02-04 Dec for S1 (Minor) solar radiations storms due to already slightly elevated >10 MeV proton values caused by the 29 Nov event.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 02-Dec 04 2020
Dec 02Dec 03Dec 04
R1-R210%10%10%
R3 or greater5%5%5%

Rationale: A slight chance exists 02-04 Dec for R1 and R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts due to regions 2786 and 2790.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 304
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
SDO/HMI Continuum
SDO/HMI Continuum image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.
Space Weather Overview
Graph showing Real-Time Space Weather Overview
These plots show the current Space Weather Overview.


Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


VHF and HF Band Conditions





Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather, Ken True of Saratoga Weather,
Jerry Wilkins of Southeast Lincoln Weather and Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather

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