000
FXUS66 KMTR 102358
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
358 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1140 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

Quiet weather this week with mild days and cool nights. A pattern
change takes hold for next weekend into early next week with a
likely return to wet and unsettled conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Filtered sunshine across the Bay Area and Central Coast this
afternoon. A pleasant afternoon with temps in the upper 50s to
lows 70s.

After several nights of cold weather prompting Frost/Freeze
headlines temperatures tonight will be warmer thanks to the cloud
cover and approaching surface front from the NW. That being said,
interior locations will still be chilly and in the mid to upper
30s.

A weak cold front off the OR coast will continue to track
southward over the next 24 hour. This front will be weakening and
ultimately wash out over the Bay Area and coastal waters. As this
happens a few showers will be possible over the coastal waters
Monday with some patchy drizzle along the immediate coast. While
land areas look mostly dry, the front will bring some clouds and
cooler conditions on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

For the upcoming work week - looks relatively quiet with mild and
dry conditions. An upper level shortwave trough deepens into an
upper low over NV and AZ Monday night through Tuesday. This low
will result in a period of offshore flow midweek. Winds will be
locally breezy over the North and East Bay Mts. The offshore flow
will keep mild and dry conditions in place. As the low moves
farther east midweek high pressure builds over CA. This building
ridge will keep the warming trend in place. In fact, by Thursday
and Friday well above normal temperatures will develop around the
region. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index gives confidence in this
occurring and also highlights that it`s unusual for this time of
year. Highs will generally be in the 60s to mid 70s Thu/Fri. San
Jose will be near record values for Friday.

A notable pattern shift in the weather is still expected next
weekend. As noted before, both deterministic and ensemble
guidance continue to advertise a robust jet moving across the
Pacific. This upper level jet will bring a more active period to
the West Coast, including CA this time. Current forecast brings
rain back tot he region as early as Saturday. Additionally, latest
Atmospheric River guidance gives about a 40-60% chance for an AR
to reach CA late next weekend into the following. Exact details
like: timing, amounts, intensity, will be fine tuned over the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Currently seeing VFR at all terminals. Most terminals will retain
this status throughout the TAF period; however, OAK and STS may not.
There is some hinting by hi-res models that OAK may obtain an MVFR
or even potentially an IFR ceiling towards the end of the TAF
period; however, confidence was not high enough to include such in
the TAF. There is more hinting for STS to see something similar to
what they saw last night in terms of low fog and low visibility;
however, the passage of high clouds from a shortwave may hinder that
opportunity, thus not giving high enough confidence to include in
the TAF.

Vicinity of SFO... Currently VFR with calm winds and high clouds.
VFR will persist throughout the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy
and onshore throughout the TAF period with northwesterly winds
giving way to westerly winds by 22Z tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both MRY and SNS, this
will be the case throughout the TAF period. Winds will turn offshore
and remain light overnight before returning to breezy onshore flow
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 357 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

The quiet weather over the waters continue to be under a high
pressure system. Gusty wind continue to build in the southern
waters as well as south of Point Sur creating hazardous conditions
for small craft vessels with winds diminishing near the mid-week.
Slight chance for a shower or two tonight into Tuesday in the
outer waters as a weak weather disturbance passes by.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...SO

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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion

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print "<p>High Precipatation<br/><br/>$usaprecip</p>\n";
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USA Extremes for Saturday, December 9, 2023

High Temperature

115°F at Houston Ellington Afb, TX

Low Temperature

-7°F at Clayton Lake, ME
-7°F at Stanley Ranger Station, ID

High Precipatation

1.69in at Hoquiam Bowerman Ap, WA

Data courtesy of NWS-CPC

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