SPC MD 871

MD 0871 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215... FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
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Mesoscale Discussion 0871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles...south central Kansas and western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215...

Valid 250249Z - 250415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms posing a risk for damaging wind and large hail will
develop through the remainder of WW 215 tonight. A new WW will
likely be proposed soon for western Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Cold front continues to surge south through the
moderately-strongly unstable environment (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE)
across the southern High Plains. This boundary currently extends
from north central KS through southwest KS into the central TX
Panhandle and northeast NM. The 00Z RAOB data indicated a strong
capping inversion in the pre-frontal warm sector. As a result storms
have only been able to initiate within the zone of strong mesoscale
frontal forcing as well as in the evolving upslope regime in post
frontal region across northeast NM. Strong effective bulk shear in
vicinity of front will continue to support organized storms
including bowing segments and some supercell structures. Storms will
cross into northwest OK by 0330Z, so another WW will likely be
needed soon for that area.

..Dial.. 06/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35600322 36430385 36820095 38039902 37719844 36059839
            35249881 35189959 35600322 

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