MD 0756 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Areas affected...portions of central/northern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 172101Z - 172300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose some
risk for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts and marginally
severe hail for another couple of hours. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing pulse
thunderstorms across portions of central/northern Georgia, with
temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and low/mid 60s F dewpoints
contributing to 1500-2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the discussion area
(per latest mesoanalysis and recent ATL ACARS profiles). Weak
mid-level flow (evident in regional VWPs) and resultant weak
effective shear within this moderately unstable environment are
favoring pulse convection across the region. While buoyancy and PWAT
values are more limited across northern Georgia compared to areas
farther south, steep low-level lapse rates (8+ C/km) and PWAT values
of 1.3-1.5 inches may support some potential for isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts (likely in the 40-50 mph range) and small
to marginally severe hail for another couple of hours. This severe
potential is forecast to remain limited in coverage and magnitude.
Convective activity is then expected to decrease with time this
evening owing to low-level nocturnal cooling/stabilization.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 05/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 32548383 33088468 33798513 34398532 34848515 35028479
35048427 34828372 34428331 33828297 33108289 32858292
32638310 32528340 32548383
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 0755 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 172038Z - 172245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible across the
eastern Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, and south-central
Kansas along a dryline this evening, with a conditional threat for
all severe hazards. Trends are being monitored for possible watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface low near the
Kansas/Nebraska border with a trailing dryline extending
south-southwestward through central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle, with recent visible satellite imagery
depicting sporadic Cu developing along this boundary. East of the
dryline, steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and rich low-level
moisture (as sampled by the 18z OUN/DDC observed soundings) are
supporting strong instability, with 2500-3500+ J/kg MLCAPE analyzed
via latest mesoanalysis.
Notable uncertainty remains regarding the development of sustained
thunderstorms owing to strong capping sampled by the 18z OUN
sounding and nebulous upper-level forcing. While effective shear is
forecast to remain modest (generally 25-35 kts), a conditional
severe threat exists should a storm develop. The aforementioned
steep mid-level lapse rates and modest effective shear would support
a threat for large hail, with a strengthening southerly low-level
jet also promoting an increasing tornado threat this evening with
any developing/persistent supercells. Some high-res guidance also
suggests some potential for the development of a linear segment,
which would favor a greater risk for severe/damaging wind gusts.
Trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance could be
needed should convective initiation appear likely/imminent given
this conditional severe threat.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 05/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35550050 36979991 38119945 38459914 38499853 38209813
37459785 36749802 36229829 35609888 34909979 34790007
34770041 34910059 35230062 35550050
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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MD 0753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Areas affected...northeast Colorado vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 172008Z - 172245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated high-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for
strong wind gusts and large hail through this evening. A severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed sometime late this afternoon, but
timing is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed near the
foothills in the I-25 corridor in central CO. This activity may
continue to develop and shift east/northeast over the next few
hours. The downstream airmass is relatively cool and dry in the wake
of a prior cold frontal passage. However, steep midlevel lapse rates
and strong vertical shear are present. RAP forecast soundings
indicate elongated/straight hodographs amid steep low and midlevel
lapse rates. This may be sufficient for isolated severe storms
capable of strong downburst winds and large hail. Trends will be
monitored for possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this
afternoon.
..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40680337 40950235 40870187 40330150 39370127 39240135
38920172 38730249 38570418 38660456 38890488 39260504
39610511 39880506 40140468 40330434 40680337
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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