FXUS66 KMTR 250053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
552 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cooling trend will continue to take hold of the Bay
Area today into Monday. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
the North and East Bay hills today. The pattern will return to a
more seasonable or cooler set up for the work week. A warming
trend is likely by next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...as of 01:42 PM PDT Sunday...The much advertised and
anticipated cooling trend forecast for today materialized. The
latest 24 hour trend as of 1 PM has many locations 5 to 15 degrees
colder than Saturday with a few spots nearing 20 deg colder (like
Santa Rosa). The cool down is a result of a stout southerly
surge, increased onshore flow and weakening high pressure. The
afternoon visible satellite imagery reveals a good southerly surge
along the coast with cloudy spots around Santa Cruz and sunshine
around Monterey. Did a few tweaks to temps to account for the
lingering clouds.

After the sunsets and the surge weakens clouds will begin to fill
in and gradually move inland overnight. Mild temps will be
possible again over the high terrain, but valleys will cool and

The cooling trend noticed on Sunday will continue on Monday as
onshore flow increases further and as an upper level trough
swings through the Pac NW. Night and morning low clouds will
become more common place through the workweek. There will likely
be some minor ups and downs through workweek regarding

Did raise temps for the extended a decent amount as the ECMWF
suggests a robust warming trend next weekend.


.AVIATION...As of 5:52 PM PDT Sunday...Stratus on the coast will
move back inland tonight on onshore winds. VFR inland areas MVFR/IFR
cigs on the coast will gradually spread inland overnight. The marine
layer will deepen tonight as an upper trough approaches. Similar
mixing out of stratus clouds can be expected on Monday.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through late tonight before MVFR/IFR cigs
develop. Southerly winds becoming more SW to W this evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Clearing earlier today will steadily fill
back in with stratus early this evening. Gusty onshore winds early
this evening.


.FIRE WEATHER...as of 1:30 PM PDT Sunday...Red Flag Warning will
stay as is for now. Afternoon winds are still gusty with readings
of 20-30 mph. Relative humidity is up considerably from 24 hours
ago, but temperatures still have a few more hours of peak
heating. Given the state of the fuels and lingering winds do not
want to cancel the warning heading into the hottest part of the
day. If anything, it may be needed to be cancelled around 5 or 6


.MARINE...as of 5:13 PM PDT Sunday...Generally light to moderate
winds will continue through tonight with southerly winds along the
inner waters and northerly winds further out. Gusty winds are
expected over the northern outer waters and locally along parts of
the inner coastal waters. Winds will increase throughout the day
tomorrow as an upper trough moves through to the north. The
resulting winds will generate steep wind waves creating hazardous
sea conditions, particularly for small vessels.


     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...SF Bay until 2 AM




Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:

NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion