NWS Forecast Area Discussion - San Francisco Area

FXUS66 KMTR 042358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
358 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024


Issued at 100 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Unsettled conditions expected to persist through midweek, yet no
widespread flooding concerns. Warmer and drier weather finally
returns late week followed by a return to unsettled weather.


(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Rain showers have about all ended as of early this afternoon except
for the North Bay. Rain chances return to the North Bay later this
afternoon and into tomorrow as another short-wave trough approaches
the region. Rainfall amounts will be light and mostly beneficial.

Tomorrow will be slightly warmer across the Bay Area and more so
over the Central Coast and Santa Clara Valley. Temperatures will
range from the upper 50s in the North Bay to mid 60s across the
interior. Light rain will continue over the North Bay and may drop
as far south as the Santa Cruz Mountains.


(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

The low pressure system looks to come ashore somewhere along the
Central Coast on Wednesday, which may trigger a few stronger
showers. As the low continues to push inland, the southerly winds
will flip back to northerly as subtropical high pressure slides
into the driver`s seat. Thursday and Friday look to be the nicest
days of the week with clear skies, mild temperatures and a
moderate northerly breeze. The clouds and rain return with a cold
front expected over the weekend. The current guidance suggest rain
will be light to moderate, and mostly confined to the North Bay.
All rain this week looks to be mostly beneficial, with no
widespread flooding concerns.

Looking way ahead, ensemble guidance and the Climate Prediction
Center are both suggesting we will move out of this cold wet
pattern in mid-March.


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

A disturbance over the Eastern Pacific is resulting in cloudy
skies across the region as well as light to breezy southwesterly
winds. As this low approaches the NorCal coastline tonight into early
Tuesday morning, VCSH will be possible across North Bay terminals
and OAK/SFO, but precip will be very light and unimpactful. VFR
is expected to persist with the exception of KSTS where reduced
cigs are more likely overnight tonight. Winds shift S/SE overnight
tonight, becoming light. SW winds increase again Tuesday
afternoon with sustained speeds of 8 to 12 knots expected across
the region.

Vicinity of SFO...Southwest winds of 10 knots expected to linger
at SFO through at least 04z before turning more southerly and
reducing into the overnight hours. Light SE winds expected early
Tues morning before SW winds increase again by the afternoon
hours. VFR is expected to persist through the TAF period with
cloud decks potentially reaching 3500 feet overnight into early
Tues morning during periods of light, sporadic rain.

SFO Bridge Approach...Satellite imagery shows cumulus deck around
3500 feet is starting to scatter out over the bridge approach.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Breezy NW winds with VFR conditions.
Winds shift SE overnight tonight, becoming breezy across the
Salinas Valley by early morning. Winds shift SW/W tomorrow


(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Generally benign marine weather conditions as the moderate period
northwesterly swell continues to diminish. Shower activity will
increase in coverage Tuesday through Wednesday as a low pressure
system approaches from the Pacific. As this low pressure system
approaches, winds will shift to become a moderate southwesterly
breeze. Northwesterly winds will increase Thursday through the
coastal waters, which will result in elevated seas.




LONG TERM....Flynn

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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion