NWS Forecast Area Discussion - San Francisco Area

FXUS66 KMTR 301530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
830 AM PDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Light rain showers will be possible over portions of
the North Bay today while dry conditions are likely elsewhere. Dry
weather, along with seasonable temperatures, are forecast for
most of the remainder of the week. Rain chances return late in the
week and potentially continue into early next week.

&& of 08:30 AM PDT Monday...Satellite imagery shows
patchy low clouds remain across much of the region this morning.
Dry conditions expected today for the most part aside from
possible showers over portions of the North Bay today as a weak
cold front moves inland to the north. Areas elsewhere are unlikely
to see any precipitation from this weak system, particularly south
of the Golden Gate. This will keep cloudy skies over much of the
North Bay while the rest of the region experiences some clearing.
Temperatures this morning are within a few degrees of yesterday
with most locations currently in the low to mid 50s. Afternoon
highs are expected mainly in the low to mid 60s with chillier
temperatures in the hills and over parts of the North Bay.
Forecast remains on track this morning with no updates needed. For
additional details please see the previous discussion.


.PREV of 03:01 AM PDT Monday...Dry weather
conditions have returned region-wide in wake of the weak system
that brought light rainfall to portions of the region yesterday.
Meanwhile, partly to mostly cloudy conditions persist this morning
with temperatures ranging from the middle 40s to middle 50s. Low
clouds over the region may help to limit fog development this
morning, especially over the North Bay. Another weather system
pushing inland to the north will bring the potential for light
rainfall over northern portions of Sonoma and Napa Counties today.
Meanwhile, dry conditions are likely to persist to the south,
especially south of the Golden Gate.

Seasonably cool and dry conditions are then likely to persist region-
wide through much of the week. While the forecast late last week was
advertising a warming trend through the workweek, confidence has
increased that this scenario will not materialize. Instead, cyclonic
flow aloft will persist as a long-wave trough persists over the
West. With this, only expecting daytime temperatures to warm into
the upper 50s along the immediate coast to 60s inland. While we
cannot rule out a few interior locations reaching the lower 70s this
week, temperatures generally will remain near to slightly below
seasonal averages.

Forecast models bring precipitation back to the region late Friday
night to the North Bay and then across the remainder of the region
on Saturday. The deterministic models diverge late in the weekend
into early next week, yet ensembles support an unsettled pattern
continuing with chances of precipitation increasing during the week
of April 6th.

&& of 4:27 AM PDT Monday...for 12Z TAFs. Widespread
MVFR ceilings are present at terminals throughout the San
Francisco Bay Area this early morning. Gradual improvements to VFR
conditions will likely occur sometime in the mid/late morning
hours. Can`t rule out some light rain around STS mid-day as the
North Bay will be on the southern extent of a system impacting
northern California and Oregon. Light winds this morning will
become onshore this afternoon. Models bring the ceilings back in
the evening/overnight hours.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR ceilings this morning with light winds.
Expect improvements to VFR conditions around 18Z and through the
afternoon. Winds will become west to northwest around mid-day.
High resolution models suggest the return of the ceilings sometime
between 03-04Z Tuesday...will have to keep a close eye on
subsequent model runs and will adjust the TAF accordingly for

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings through mid/late morning
with light winds, becoming VFR with onshore winds in the
afternoon. Ceilings return in the evening/overnight hours.

&& of 03:01 AM PDT Monday...Generally light to locally
moderate west to northwest winds will prevail over the coastal
waters today. The strongest winds are forecast to impact areas
along the Big Sur Coast. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, winds
are forecast to increase across all the waters, generating seas
that are potentially hazardous to smaller vessels. Mixed swell
will persist with a moderate northwest swell and a light
southwesterly swell.


     .Tday...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM




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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion