002
FXUS66 KMTR 140450
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
950 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

 - Continued hot and dry today and tomorrow for interior
   communities with Moderate HeatRisk.

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay
   Area and Central California Coast.

 - Hazardous beach conditions return by Sunday with increased risk
   of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Infrared satellite imagery is largely a Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V compared to
24 hours ago with marine stratus blanketing the Pacific Coast,
pushing through the Golden Gate, and spreading south through the
Salinas Valley. Similar to last night, expect the stratus to
expand as the night continues, with many Bay Area locations likely
waking up to overcast conditions for tomorrow morning. Main thing
to pass along is that the Heat Advisory for the South Bay and
interior East Bay was allowed to expire at 7 PM PDT earlier this
evening. Full update coming in several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

GOES-West visible imagery shows clear skies across most of the area
with lingering stratus hugging close to the Pacific coastal
communities and western San Francisco. The stratus will continue to
recede to the marine environment this afternoon but will return
overnight.

Upper-level pattern continues to be dominated by ridging over the
eastern Pacific. While a few degrees cooler than yesterday, ridging
will keep afternoon high temperatures warmer than usual,
particularly for interior areas. High temperatures will be in the
80s to near 100 degrees for far inland locations leading to
localized Moderate HeatRisk, especially noted in the Santa Clara
Valley and Alameda and Contra Costa counties. The Heat Advisory will
end at 7 PM PDT this evening however precautions should continue to
be taken to alleviate the risk for heat related illnesses Sunday
through Tuesday. Ways to stay safe during the heat is to wear light
weight, loose clothing, drink water frequently, and spend time in
the shade or in air conditioned buildings. Know the difference
between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, keeping in mind that heat
stroke is a medical emergency.

High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-
lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle
of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar
perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a
combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern
Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the
vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to
bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through early next week.
While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at
2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest
observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from
July 2022.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Starting tomorrow, the high pressure situated over the Pacific
will flatten and begin to weaken slightly, allowing for daytime
temperatures to gradually cool and return to mid-June
climatological normal. Usual June stratus along the Pacific Coast
is expected for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 947 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Satellite imagery highlights the marine stratus filling in across
adjacent coastal valleys and gaps. Status is projected to fill in
across the San Francisco Bay from KOAK down to KSFO and through the
North Bay valleys overnight. More restrictive visibilities will be
pinned to the immediate coast and through the Santa Rosa Plain and
Salinas Valley. There is some forecast uncertainty regarding the
immediate coast (specifically KHAF) regarding how well the stratus
deck will scatter out in the afternoon. Outgoing TAFs will carry a
pessimistic outlook holding the stratus over the terminal, but it is
possible the cloud cover will erode and hold just offshore by the
afternoon. Otherwise, light overnight winds will give way to breezy
onshore conditions again tomorrow afternoon as marine stratus erodes
for most locations.

Vicinity of SFO... Moderate confidence regarding the expansion of
stratus to fill in across the Bay and KSFO through the mid-morning
hours. Any stratus observed will erode through daylight hours as
wind speeds pick up, ranging from the northwest between 15-20 knots
by the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO

Vicinity of SJC and OAK... For OAK, status is expected to fill in
this morning bringing IFR conditions before mixing out between 17-
19Z. For SJC, while VFR is currently highlighted, there is a window
between 10Z-16Z where marine stratus could briefly press far enough
south to induce periodic IFR ceilings. Confidence in this
outcome is low at this time.

Monterey Bay Terminals... High confidence persistence forecast for
KMRY and KSNS as the marine layer remains deeply entrenched across
the bay. IFR to LIFR ceilings will be likely through the night
before diurnal heating clears out the stratus deck.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 947 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Gentle southerly breezes and moderate to rough seas with a low
south-southwesterly swell persist across most of the coastal
waters. Winds will remain fairly consistent through the weekend
as the seas subside. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in
the northern outer waters towards the middle of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for
Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area
coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your
back to the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Beach Hazards Statement from 3 AM PDT Sunday through late
     Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529-
     530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion